Discount Gambling

Easy Way To Beat PlayCraps™ @ Viejas Casino

Posted in Uncategorized by stephenhow on August 1, 2009

Ok, I just got straightened out on what the actual lay 4/10 vig is. You put up $41 to win $20, so this is better than I previously thought. So I fixed the OpenOffice spreadsheet, and my simulations:

Macintosh:Debug show$ ./laycraps -n 100000000000 -r -t 2 -m 15
max muck depth: 15, CSM buffer depth: 10, threshold: 2, seed: 1249092576
...  ...
roll: 61970000, net: 40131.900, return: +0.15%
roll: 61980000, net: 40184.350, return: +0.15%
roll: 61990000, net: 40218.950, return: +0.15%
roll: 62000000, net: 40254.550, return: +0.15%
roll: 62010000, net: 40231.850, return: +0.15%
roll: 62020000, net: 40243.700, return: +0.15%

Where the 0.15% edge is on the total action, which includes $41 for each roll the lay is ON. This is a pretty conservative way to state the return.

Another way to look at it is the edge for any given roll:

Running Count Lay 10 Player Edge
0 -0.29%
1 -0.04%
2 +0.23%
3 +0.48%
4 +0.76%
5 +1.01%

So, the easy way to play this is to lay the 4 and 10 when the count is good (at Viejas, you pay the vig up front). Then, while the count is good (i.e., RC >= 2 for the lay 10, and RC <= -2 for the lay 4), you leave the lay bet ON. When the count isn't good, you turn the appropriate lay bet OFF. Usually, this means both the lay bets are OFF, then when one of the counts gets good, that bet goes ON. When the count goes bad, both bet OFF. When the count is neutral (0), the distribution shows the odds are greater then 2:1 to hit the 4/10. However, the odds aren't good enough to overcome the vig. But, you can gamble, and turn both bets ON, and if 7 comes up, you win both bets.

It’s a little strange to have both lay bets up there, and turning them ON/OFF with every roll. The dealers might get a little irritated, and you’re only picking up a small edge. (While a lay bet is ON, you’re picking up from approx. 0.25 – 1.0% edge.) Too bad it’s not an electronic game :(

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One Response

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  1. Grumpy said, on July 4, 2012 at 10:14 pm

    Just to give a heads up to something that happened to me at Viejas,which was my fault. I left my card in a machine when I got a new one,my free play and points were drained. Viejas security,and their crack V club ambassadors did not seem to care. Watch your card,and your pin number


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