Card Craps Source Code
If anyone is interested in verifying the CSM card craps edge (e.g., @ Viejas), I’m making the Java source code for the simulator/analyzer available here. You just need the Java SDK installed to compile and run the program. If your Unix environment is already set up for Java development, just follow these steps to get up and running:
>curl http://imadegen.com/cardcraps/card_craps.tar | tar zx % Total % Received % Xferd Average Speed Time Time Time Current Dload Upload Total Spent Left Speed 100 24576 100 24576 0 0 67205 0 --:--:-- --:--:-- --:--:-- 105k >cd card_craps >make javac -Xlint Analyzer.java CSM.java Roll.java Window.java Average.java PointStats.java CSM.java:13: warning: [unchecked] unchecked conversion 2 warnings >java Analyzer don't pass, 10x odds, 14 card min buffer depth, 6-roll window 0 rolls: net +1.0, EV/roll +Infinity%, EV/game +100.00% 1000000 rolls: net +2828.0, EV/roll +0.28%, EV/game +0.95% 2000000 rolls: net +9921.0, EV/roll +0.50%, EV/game +1.67% 3000000 rolls: net +12754.0, EV/roll +0.43%, EV/game +1.43% 4000000 rolls: net +24592.0, EV/roll +0.61%, EV/game +2.07% 5000000 rolls: net +36467.0, EV/roll +0.73%, EV/game +2.46% 6000000 rolls: net +47067.0, EV/roll +0.78%, EV/game +2.65%
There are several options to the program, so you can experiment with the different CSM model parameters:
>java Analyzer -h usage: Analyzer <options> where options include: -n <number of rolls> specifies number of rolls to simulate (default 100 million) -d play Don't Pass line (default) -p play Pass line -o <max odds> specifies odds to take/lay for good count -b <buffer depth> specifies minimum reservoir depth (default 14) -w <window depth> specifies count window depth (default 6) -a print per-point statistics -h, --help display this usage Place a space between the option and parameter value.
The program shows the game is +EV, but it’ll also show you the huge variance for any given session. You can use the -n 1000 option to simulate a session (1000 rolls is possible in a few hours, heads up).