Discount Gambling

Simplified Collusion For Mississippi Stud

Posted in +EV, collusion, mississippi stud by stephenhow on May 22, 2011

When I play Mississippi Stud at the casino, I use a simplified collusion strategy that’s easier to remember than my full advanced strategy. The simple strategy only needs knowledge of your high and mid outs. It’s very easy to track them, once you know your starting outs (you have to ask around at the start of the hand). The full strategy uses low outs for the 3rd and 4th Street decisions, and uses detailed tables for 3x betting straight draws on 5th Street. The simplified strategy is very simple to remember, and still returns a positive expectation (+EV) for a full table of 6 players.

Simplified Collusion Strategy

The following simplified collusion strategy returns about +0.5% for a full table of 6 players. That’s more than a 5% improvement over playing without info (-4.91% house edge).

  • 3rd Street
    • small pair: 3x bet if 0 copies, 1x bet if 1 copy, fold if 2 copies
    • 3x bet 5 high suited outs, or 6 high offsuit outs
    • if suited, 1x bet at least 2 high outs, or 4 mid outs
    • if offsuit, 1x bet at least 3 high outs, or 2 high and 2 mid outs, or 5 mid outs
    • fold all others
  • 4th Street
    • 1x bet small pair
    • 3x bet 8 high suited outs
    • 1x bet suited cards
    • 1x bet 3 high and 1 mid outs
    • 1x bet 2 high and 3 mid outs
    • 1x bet 1 high and 5 mid outs
    • 6 mid outs
    • 5 mid outs, 1-gap
    • 4 mid outs, 0-gap
    • fold all others
  • 5th Street
    • 3x bet flush draw, or open-ended straight draw with all outs remaining
    • 1x bet low pair, or straight draw
    • 1x bet 5 high outs
    • 1x bet 4 high and 2 mid outs
    • 1x bet 3 high and 4 mid outs
    • 1x bet 2 high and 6 mid outs
    • 1x bet 1 high and 8 mid outs
    • fold all others

How To Collude

You have to communicate with your fellow players at the start of the hand to learn your initial outs. For example, if you have K5o, you need to know how many Kings are out there. I’ve suggested a few ways for players to collude, and I think the simplest is for everyone to quietly announce their hand, in order. This only takes a few seconds, and everyone figures out their outs. For example, with K5o, all you need to know is if there are any Kings out there. If someone else holds a King, you fold. Otherwise, you 1x bet your hand. Then, as the dealer turns up the community cards, you know how many outs you pick up. Say 3rd Street is a 6. If no one 3x bets this card, this means you now have 3 high and 3 mid outs, enough to 1x bet and see 4th Street. On the other hand, if three people 3x bet this card, it means you only have 3 high outs, and you should fold your hand.

Notice the pattern of the minimum calling hands in the table. You can see that 2 mid outs are equal to 1 high out. This makes it easier to remember the cutoff points.

2 Responses

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  1. Steve Byrd said, on December 14, 2011 at 6:16 am

    For a RANK novice I do not understand some of the terms. Can you post a glossary?

    • stephenhow said, on February 4, 2012 at 12:05 pm

      High Outs = number of cards left in the deck (i.e., not seen) that will pair your J, Q, K, or A’s.
      Mid Outs = number of cards left in the deck (i.e., not seen) that will pair your 6 thru 10′s.
      “copies” = number of cards in other people’s hands that match your card(s)
      1-gap = hand like 8,7,5; this is a 1-gap straight draw
      0-gap = hand like 7,6,5; this is a 0-gap straight draw
      straight outs = on 5th St., number of cards left in the deck (not seen) that will make you a straight


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