Discount Gambling

G3 Poker Progressive @ Barona

Posted in progressive sidebets by stephenhow on September 17, 2011

All the carnival games at Barona (Three-Card Poker, Four-Card Poker, Caribbean Stud, Mississippi Stud, etc.) share the same G3 5-card poker progressive.

Hand Payout Probability Return
Royal Flush 100% 1.5391 x 10-6 jackpot/649,740
Straight Flush 10% 1.3852 x 10-5 jackpot/721,933
4-of-a-Kind 500-for-1 2.4010 x 10-4 0.120048
Bad Hand* 250-for-1 3.9400 x 10-4 0.098501
Full House 100-for-1 1.4406 x 10-3 0.144058
Flush 50-for-1 1.9654 x 10-3 0.098270
Straight 20-for-1 3.9246 x 10-3 0.078493
Magic Card** 20-for-1 3.6982 x 10-3 0.073964
all others 0-for-1 ~ 98.8% 0
total 0.613334 +
jackpot/341,968

So the break even point for the jackpot is $132,227.

*Bad Hand = 7-5-4-3-2
**Magic Card frequency assumed @ 1/26 (from DEQ published data)

Pai-Gow Progressive @ Barona

Posted in pai-gow poker, progressive sidebets by stephenhow on September 17, 2011

The Pai-Gow progressive jackpot often gets very large at Barona, so here’s the breakdown, if you feel like playing it sometimes:

Hand Payout Probability Return
5 Aces 100% 7.3179 x 10-6 jackpot/136,651
5-of-a-Kind 1000-for-1 8.7815 x 10-5 0.087815
Royal Flush 500-for-1 1.7563 x 10-4 0.087815
Bad Hand* 250-for-1 1.0082 x 10-4 0.025204
Straight Flush 100-for-1 1.4503 x 10-3 0.145034
4-of-a-Kind 20-for-1 7.2935 x 10-3 0.145870
Magic Card** 20-for-1 5.0798 x 10-3 0.101597
all others 0-for-1 ~ 98.6% 0
total 0.593335 +
jackpot/136,651

So the break-even point for the jackpot is $55,571. Last month, someone hit it for $125k. That means the EV was 1.51, while it lasted.

*Bad Hand = 9-high, no 6, no flush
**Magic Card frequency assumed @ 1/26 (from DEQ, the game publisher)

Free Rides @ Mississippi Stud (Barona Casino)

Posted in +EV, mississippi stud by stephenhow on September 3, 2011

The Social Wagering at Barona gets better and better. Unlike other casinos, Barona is fine with players passing chips around and betting on each other’s hands, and even promotes it. So, at the Mississippi Stud game, not only do you get to see all the player’s hands face up (player edge > +1.5%), you can take additional +EV bets when the hand owner doesn’t utilize his 3x bet. (E.g., small pairs with 2 trip outs on 3rd St., 6 high outs on 3rd St., flush draws on 5th St., etc.)

Last night I realized there’s an additional way to squeeze out some more EV from the game. Often, there’s players at the table that like to over-bet other people’s hands. They often want to piggy-back another 1x or 2x bet on your hand, when the correct decision is just to 1x bet the street. In this case, let them bet on your hand, but remove your own 1x bet on that street. This way, you see the street “for free” (well, the EV improvement is only around 15%). It also helps you preserve your capital, which is very important while you wait for a winner.

For example, say you have KJo, and someone else has a Jack. You’re offsuit, and have 5 high (winning) outs. You’re only supposed to 1x bet 3rd Street. But depending on the table, someone might want to “bet on your hand”, and piggy-back a 1x or 2x bet on your 3rd St. If they pass you the money, place their bet, and then remove your own. This way, you see 3rd St. “for free” (actually, you only save about 13% of the Ante in this case). While your hand is actually +EV (+.64), it’s not good enough to 3x bet (+.43, for higher risk). If someone else bets your 3rd St. for you, your EV goes up to +.77.

Or, say you have a small pair (e.g., 55). You see one of your trip outs, so you only 1x bet 3rd Street. But someone wants to gamble, and add 1x to your 3rd St. bet. Go ahead and place their bet, but remove your own. In this case, you’ll save about 14% of the Ante. The hand will return +.31 for a 1x bet, but increases to +.45 if someone else bets your 3rd St. for you.

In general, any time you’re only supposed to bet 1x, but someone wants to bet on your hand, book their action but don’t bet your own money. This way, you get to “check” through the street, and only bet when you should. This happens quite often when people are winning and having fun.

I haven’t started doing this, but I suspect people might slow down when they see you’re not willing to bet your own hand. For example, I always offer to give away my hand before I fold it. That means they can take over the hand, if they want it, for “free”. They used to snap up the offer, but lately, they all pass. They’ve either figured out the true EV of a hand, or simply realize that if I don’t want it, they shouldn’t either.

Any way, there’s just more and more +EV opportunities at the already +EV Mississippi Stud game @ Barona. Now if only they brought the Party Pit to pit 3 …

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