Discount Gambling

7 Up Baccarat @ Marina Bay Sands, SG

Posted in baccarat, csm by stephenhow on June 16, 2012

In today’s Grail quest, I took a look at the countability of a Baccarat variant called 7 Up Baccarat, dealt out of a constant shuffle machine (CSM). If you’ve read this blog closely, you know that a CSM does not eliminate all countability in a game. This is because cards are in buffered in the exit chute of the CSM, so recently dealt cards have no chance of coming out soon. A windowed count may be effective against a CSM.

You can browse or download all the code for this post, if you want to see how I roll.

Anyway, here’s what I found for 7-Up Baccarat. Both the banker and player bets have very high sensitivities to removed cards (EORs). (Compare this to normal baccarat, where the EORs are effectively zero.) Simulations show a windowed count is strongly correlated to the EV of the next hand dealt out of the CSM. The figure below shows a 20-card windowed count tells you when its better to bet Player or Banker. Unfortunately, the count almost never gets good enough to be +EV. You can see if they made the game more “fair” (house edge only 1.3% instead of the chosen 2.6%), then you’d often find some +EV opportunities. I doubt they did this kind of analysis, but who knows.

Same thing with the Super-7’s side bet. If they made the nominal house edge closer to 5% than the 8.9% they chose, then it’d be very countable. The count is very simple. Any 7 you see is -12, and any non-7 is +1. I think everyone can imagine that it’s better to bet the Super-7’s when they haven’t seen any 7’s out of the CSM in the last few hands. And I’m sure no one bets Super 7’s just after seeing a bunch of 7’s come out. Simulation of the Super-7’s bet show a perfect linear correlation between the count and the EV of the bet. In all simulations, a minBufferDepth of 20 was used (minimum number of cards in the exit chute buffer).

6 Responses

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  1. James said, on June 19, 2012 at 4:18 am

    I have downloaded the source code as shown in the post above. I am new to C++, anyone can show me step by step how to compile and run C++ ? I have installed Visual Studio 2010 in my laptop.

  2. Stanley said, on January 6, 2015 at 5:26 pm

    What is the true count to place the side bet if shoe is used?

    • James said, on January 6, 2015 at 9:12 pm

      Can you find super-7 which dealt from a shoe box ? Online casino ? House edge for online casino is much higher than 8.9% !!!!

      • Stanley said, on January 6, 2015 at 9:18 pm

        It should be shoe game.
        It’s beyond my reach to calculating the suitable true count to place the bet. Can you do me this favor? Payout table as below

        Any six 7’s pays 777-to-1.
        Any five 7’s pays 77-to-1.
        Any four 7’s pays 15 to 1.
        Any three 7’s pays 6-to-1.
        Any two 7’s pays 2-to-1

    • James said, on January 6, 2015 at 9:15 pm

      You don’t need to use true count, running count can easily beat it. Contact me : bjman2010@gmail.com

    • James said, on January 6, 2015 at 9:26 pm

      I can run the simulation to check whether this game beatable or not. Online casino ? Contact me : bjman2010@gmail.com


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