Lunar Poker @ Pechanga Casino
Well, someone is finally bringing the infamous Lunar Poker (aka Russian Poker) to the US, starting at my nearby Pechanga Casino. The game is a very interesting version of the old Caribbean Stud Poker, with a lot more options like drawing cards, buying an extra card, buying insurance, and forcing the dealer to draw (all for a price).
The game has been infamous, because the many player options result in an incalculable number of possible hand combinations (6.27x 10^20 according to the WoOs), and because of the absence of a published strategy. It sounds like people have played this game by the seat of their pants for years in Europe and Asia. But a lot of us won’t play a game without first knowing the basic strategy and house edge. So I grinded out the analysis, just in case you run across this game.
Rules
The rules follow the basic structure of Caribbean Stud Poker. You place an Ante before the hand starts, and the players and dealer each receive five cards. The dealer exposes one of his cards. You eventually decide to either Raise 2x, or fold your Ante. The dealer turns up his hand, and needs Ace-King or better to qualify. If the dealer doesn’t qualify, then the remaining Antes are paid even-money, and the Raise bets push. If the dealer qualifies, then the Antes push, and the Raise bets are paid according to a paytable.
So far, these rules are just like Caribbean Stud, except here, the Ante only pays when the dealer doesn’t qualify.
Now, Lunar Poker offers the following player options before the Player makes his 2x Raise decision:
- The player may either receive an extra (6th) card, or may replace 2-5 of his cards, for the cost of 1x the Ante.
- With three-of-a-kind or better, the player may take even-money insurance against the Dealer not qualifying (up to 1/2 the amount of the winning payout).
The players make their 2x Raise or Fold decision, then the dealer turns up his hand. If the dealer doesn’t qualify, the Antes and Insurance pay even money. If the dealer qualifies, then the player must beat the dealer to win his Raise bet and push his Ante. Else, the player loses his Ante and Raise. Insurance loses if the dealer qualifies and the player wins. If the dealer qualifies and the player loses, Insurance pushes. (Note: Pechanga lets you can take Insurance on up to the full amount your potential win.)
Finally, if the dealer doesn’t qualify, the player has an option to:
- Pay 1x Ante to force the dealer to replace his highest card with a draw from the deck.
If the dealer qualifies after the draw, then the player’s Ante and Raise resolve as before. If the dealer doesn’t qualify, then the Ante and Raise push. Note: if you decide to Force the dealer to draw, then you forfeit the pay on the Ante you would normally receive. (It is expensive to Force the dealer; you forfeit your win on the Ante, AND you have to pay 1x!)
Paytable
For winning hands against a qualified dealer hand, the Raise bet pays according to the following paytable. More importantly, you are paid on a second hand from the paytable, when the second hand uses at least one different card from your first payout hand. (Note: “hands” do not include kickers; e.g., a three-of-a-kind hand contains only 3 cards for purposes of the paytable.) I’m not going to provide examples of the second payout, as this is described elsewhere.
| Hand | Payout |
|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 100-to-1 |
| Straight Flush | 50-to-1 |
| Four-of-a-Kind | 20-to-1 |
| Full House | 7-to-1 |
| Flush | 5-to-1 |
| Straight | 4-to-1 |
| Three-of-a-Kind | 3-to-1 |
| Two Pairs | 2-to-1 |
| One Pair | 1-to-1 |
| AK | 1-to-1 |
Basic Strategy
I worked out a simple strategy for the game that simulates at a 1.43% house edge. That’s not bad as far as carnival games go, but it looks like their claim of “House Advantage Under 1%!” is false.
Draw Decision
The first decision on what to hold and draw is presented in the table below.
| 5-Card Hand | Decision |
|---|---|
| Royal Flush Straight Flush Flush Straight |
Always buy 6th card. |
| Four-of-a-Kind | Stand. |
| Full House | Buy 6th card unless dealer upcard copies you. |
| Three-of-a-Kind | Stand if 4-of-a-kind not possible, else hold trips and exchange 2 cards. |
| Two Pairs | Stand. |
| One Pair w/ AK | Discard 2′s or 3′s (hold AK and exchange 3) against higher upcard, Queen or lower, else stand. |
| One Pair | Buy 6th card for open-ended, flush draw, or gutshot. Hold pair and exchange 3 if pair below upcard, else stand. |
| AK | Buy 6th card for open-ended, flush draw, else Buy 6th card for perfect gutshot to 6-card straight, else Buy 6th card for gutshot straight draw against A or K upcard, else Hold AKs and royal cards higher than dealer upcard, else Hold AK and exchange 3 |
| Nothing | Buy 6th card for open-ended or flush draw, else Buy 6th card for perfect gutshot to 6-card straight, else Hold AKs and any Royal cards, else Hold two or more Royal cards higher than the dealer upcard, else Hold three straight flush cards higher than the dealer upcard, else Hold A against K upcard or lower, else Hold K against J upcard or lower, else Hold Q against copied J upcard or lower, else Hold Q against 5 upcard or lower, Else fold. |
where open-ended straight draws include double-gutshot straight draws.
Insurance
It’s only correct to take insurance in a few cases. Never insure your hand against an Ace or King upcard. Otherwise, take insurance when you copy the dealer upcard 2 or more times. If you only copy the dealer upcard once, then take insurance when you also hold 2 or more Aces or Kings in your hand.
2x Raise / Fold
You should 2x Raise any pair or better. Fold any non-qualifying hand. Otherwise, play AK according to the table below.
| Hand | Decision |
|---|---|
| Pair or better | Raise 2x. |
| AK |
Call with any copies of the dealer upcard, Q or lower, else Call with AKJ83 or better with any copies of the dealer upcard (including A, K), else Fold all others. |
| non-qualifying | Fold. |
Force Dealer Bet
Your potential Raise payout and the possible dealer outs determine when you should try to force the dealer to draw. The table below tells you when to pay 1x to replace the highest dealer card with one from the deck. Remember, you’re forfeiting your instant Ante win by Forcing the dealer to draw. Plus, you’re paying 1x for the Force, so you need at least a 4:1 payout to make it profitable (i.e., don’t Force trips-only hands).
| Potential Payout | Conditions |
|---|---|
| 3-to-1 or lower |
Never force. |
| 4-to-1 | Don’t force dealer flush or open-ended draws that beat you unless all dealer pair outs are available, else Don’t force if you hold 2 or more of the dealer’s pair outs, else force. |
| 5-to-1 | Force unless you hold 4 or more of the dealer’s pair outs. |
| 6-to-1 or higher |
Always force. |
Simple Two Player Collusion
If you’re friendly with your table-neighbor, you can slightly modify basic strategy to get a +EV return of +0.43% on the Ante. The drawing decision is modified accordingly:
| 5-Card Hand | Decision |
|---|---|
| Three-of-a-Kind | Stand pat if your neighbor holds your quad out, else hold trips and exchange 2 cards. |
| One Pair w/o AK |
Buy 6th card for open-ended or flush draw, else Buy 6th card with over-pair (above dealer upcard) and gutshot if all straight outs remain, else Buy 6th card with under-pair (below dealer upcard) and gutshot if any straight outs remain, else Stand pat against dead upcard (3 copies) Q or lower, else Hold under-pair (below dealer upcard) and draw 3 if all outs remain, else Stand pat for all others. |
| AK |
Buy 6th card for open-ended or flush draw, else Buy 6th card with 2+ outs to perfect gutshot (6-card straight), else Buy 6th card with 3+ outs to gutshot against A/K upcard, else Stand pat against dead upcard (3 copies), Q or lower, else Hold two or more royal cards, exchange rest, else Buy 6th card with at least 2 gutshot draws to AKQJT, else Hold AK and exchange 3 cards. |
| Nothing |
Buy 6th card for open-ended or flush draw, else Buy 6th card with 2+ outs to perfect gutshot (6-card straight), else Stand pat against dead upcard (3 copies), Q or lower, else Hold two or more royal cards, exchange rest, else Hold your highest card, 9 or better, higher than the upcard and not copied by your neighbor, else Hold 3 straight flush cards higher than the upcard, else Fold all others. |
Only take insurance when you and your neighbor hold 3 total copies of the upcard, Queen or lower. Never insure against an Ace or King upcard.
Finally, modify the 2x Raise decision:
- Call any 2:1 pay or better, else
- Fold pair deuces against uncopied upcard 3 thru Q, else
- Call any other pair, else
- Call any hand when you and your neighbor hold all 3 copies of the dealer upcard Queen or lower, else
- Call AKJ83 or better when you and your neighbor hold any copies of the upcard, else
- Call AK when you and your neighbor hold 2 copies of the dealer upcard Queen or lower, else
- Fold all others.
Awesome! I avoided this game because I don’t have a clue what I am doing in it, but now I may give it another shot! I still don’t like the fact that the dealer has to qualify. Thanks for crunching “some” numbers and for the basic strategy!
Mike
Stephen,what happens when a player forces the dealer to draw a card,does the draw card only play against that players hand,and not against the players who did not want the dealer to draw?
If you don’t want to force the dealer to draw, then you win the Ante, and you push your Raise. If other players elect to Force the dealer draw, it won’t affect you.
Sounds like a job. I am not into all thatwork. :’)
The more I read the more this game intrigues me…I need to visit soon
Hello. The game was introduced in Russia almost ten years ago (and is known there as Russian Poker). It was analysed (in the many years process of using) for different outlets with different (though not much different) house edge results.
Don’t want argue with your house edge estimation. Just want to say some interesting facts about basic strategy for the one box.
There are 122,151,120 starting combinations (for the one box).
And there are 2472 decisions to draw all 5 cards (!) and almost 18% of all decisions is a decision to draw 4 cards.
So the basic strategy for the one box is quite complicated.
Not to mention the basic strategy for the two boxes is much much more complicated (when the player knows the first box cards when makes decision for the second box).
The game itself is a really interesting to play and became most popular casino game in former USSR countries. Good luck!
Thanks for the info on the game. I have little idea where it’s available, or how popular it is. BTW, I’m not making any estimates of what the house edge is — I’m just providing a simple one-player strategy that yields a -1.4% return. My posted two-player collusion strategy yields a +0.4% return, and is pretty simple. I keep the strategies simple enough for most people to remember. Of course, the beauty of this game is not in the simple one-player or two-player strategies …
Completely agree with you. It was known from the start when game was introduced that on two boxes (with an equal ante sum) the player has an advantage. But optimal strategy is so difficult that in reality statistical return from the average bet was more then for example for Black Jack or Oasis poker. The reason is simple. It is to easy for player to make mistakes, to deviate from the optimal strategy.
So the players are really need to use some basic strategy (but not to much complicated) that can help dramatically increase the player’s return and to get much more fun from the game.
Lunar poker is seen at the River City Casino is St. Louis Missouri, at least through Sept 2012. According to the Missouri Gaming commission, it Dropped $60K, and held $22K, or 36%. At 60K drop, it wasn’t getting much action as a side game; in the same month, UTH dropped $279K.
Stephen, do you calculate the house edge on the ante bet or in regard to the complete amount wagered (element of risk)? I allways look at the eor when comparing casino games. Thanks and keep up the good work!
I always state the house edge as a number relative to the ante. If I quote the element of risk for a game, I’ll make it clear in the statement.
Stephen, thanks for posting this basic strategy. I live in Eastern Europe, and have been playing this game for many years now. Its great to see the game was analysed for the first time!
May I ask one question on your basic strategy – your say to 2x raise any pair. This sounds slightly counter intuitive. If the dealer doesn’t qualify (approx. 23% chance) – you win ante bet only (1 unit). However, if the dealer qualifies – you loose both ante and the bet amount (so you loose 3 units). So if you have 2,2; or 3,3 it doesn’t seem to make much sense to play in my intuitive logic. If dealer has a game – chances are he will beat you. So it seems like there is very high risk for a low return if you call with small pairs. Personally, i never call with a small pair – unless I have at least one card same as dealer’s upcard, or if my pair is higher than dealers upcard. But if dealer is showing 7, and I have 5,5 – I don’t call. Do you think its wrong play?
Amphibia,
Nice point about the pair of deuces! I just ran the sims, and see that for a pair of deuces, with no second payout, against an uncopied dealer Q or lower, it’s slightly better to fold (-1) than to call (-1.001). But, it’s a very small difference (0.1%), and it’s just easier to state basic strategy as “2x all pairs or better”. However, you should definitely call with a pair of treys, even under the same circumstances (3 < uncopied dealer upcard <= Q), as EV(2x) is about -0.89, which is much better than EV(fold) = -1. Of course, if you’re using other player information, then you’ll play small pairs much differently.
It's really cool that you have Lunar Poker there. It's not catching on here in the US very well. Also, do players in Eastern Europe discuss their hands during play? Or is that strictly forbidden?
Steve
Many thanks for this! I didn’t know the odds until now, so its great to get to really understand the game finally. May I ask a couple more questions from your sim, when you have time. Sometimes, when I have a low pair (77 and lower) against a higher uncopied dealer upcard, I either take a 6th card, or exchange 3 cards, drawing for 3 of a kind. This is probably not the smartest move, but I am very curious what’s the EV in each case.
1) 2x small pair
2) draw the 6th card -> 2x if improves, otherwise fold
3) exchange 3 cards ->2x if improves, otherwise fold
What if you do the same, but you play with 2 other people (3 players in total), and neither of them copies dealers upcard, also neither of them copies your pair. Does it get to the point where its +EV to exchange 3 cards on any pair (<=Q)? E.g. if you knew 4 players card and none copied your pair.
Which I guess leads to your question about discussing hands. Generally, its discouraged, but its not enforced very strictly. Some players routinely tell when they copy dealers card, some don't. But generally you can ask, and people typically ask if anyone had some card if they are drawing for a 3 of a kind. Peeking at cards is more strongly policed, but unless you do this on a regular basis, you can still get a look when drawing close hand. I am not sure it would be that lax if you played high stakes though.