Discount Gambling

Well, someone is finally bringing the infamous Lunar Poker (aka Russian Poker) to the US, starting at my nearby Pechanga Casino. The game is a very interesting version of the old Caribbean Stud Poker, with a lot more options like drawing cards, buying an extra card, buying insurance, and forcing the dealer to draw (all for a price).

The game has been infamous, because the many player options result in an incalculable number of possible hand combinations (6.27x 10^20 according to the WoOs), and because of the absence of a published strategy. It sounds like people have played this game by the seat of their pants for years in Europe and Asia. But a lot of us won’t play a game without first knowing the basic strategy and house edge. So I grinded out the analysis, just in case you run across this game.

Rules

The rules follow the basic structure of Caribbean Stud Poker. You place an Ante before the hand starts, and the players and dealer each receive five cards. The dealer exposes one of his cards. You eventually decide to either Raise 2x, or fold your Ante. The dealer turns up his hand, and needs Ace-King or better to qualify. If the dealer doesn’t qualify, then the remaining Antes are paid even-money, and the Raise bets push. If the dealer qualifies, then the Antes push, and the Raise bets are paid according to a paytable.

So far, these rules are just like Caribbean Stud, except here, the Ante only pays when the dealer doesn’t qualify.

Now, Lunar Poker offers the following player options before the Player makes his 2x Raise decision:

• The player may either receive an extra (6th) card, or may replace 2-5 of his cards, for the cost of 1x the Ante.
• With three-of-a-kind or better, the player may take even-money insurance against the Dealer not qualifying (up to 1/2 the amount of the winning payout).

The players make their 2x Raise or Fold decision, then the dealer turns up his hand. If the dealer doesn’t qualify, the Antes and Insurance pay even money. If the dealer qualifies, then the player must beat the dealer to win his Raise bet and push his Ante. Else, the player loses his Ante and Raise. Insurance loses if the dealer qualifies and the player wins. If the dealer qualifies and the player loses, Insurance pushes. (Note: Pechanga lets you can take Insurance on up to the full amount your potential win.)

Finally, if the dealer doesn’t qualify, the player has an option to:

• Pay 1x Ante to force the dealer to replace his highest card with a draw from the deck.

If the dealer qualifies after the draw, then the player’s Ante and Raise resolve as before. If the dealer doesn’t qualify, then the Ante and Raise push. Note: if you decide to Force the dealer to draw, then you forfeit the pay on the Ante you would normally receive. (It is expensive to Force the dealer; you forfeit your win on the Ante, AND you have to pay 1x!)

Paytable

For winning hands against a qualified dealer hand, the Raise bet pays according to the following paytable. More importantly, you are paid on a second hand from the paytable, when the second hand uses at least one different card from your first payout hand. (Note: “hands” do not include kickers; e.g., a three-of-a-kind hand contains only 3 cards for purposes of the paytable.) I’m not going to provide examples of the second payout, as this is described elsewhere.

Basic Strategy

I worked out a simple strategy for the game that simulates at a 1.43% house edge. That’s not bad as far as carnival games go, but it looks like their claim of “House Advantage Under 1%!” is false.

Draw Decision

The first decision on what to hold and draw is presented in the table below.

where open-ended straight draws include double-gutshot straight draws.

Insurance

It’s only correct to take insurance in a few cases. Never insure your hand against an Ace or King upcard. Otherwise, take insurance when you copy the dealer upcard 2 or more times. If you only copy the dealer upcard once, then take insurance when you also hold 2 or more Aces or Kings in your hand.

2x Raise / Fold

You should 2x Raise any pair or better. Fold any non-qualifying hand. Otherwise, play AK according to the table below.

Force Dealer Bet

Your potential Raise payout and the possible dealer outs determine when you should try to force the dealer to draw. The table below tells you when to pay 1x to replace the highest dealer card with one from the deck. Remember, you’re forfeiting your instant Ante win by Forcing the dealer to draw. Plus, you’re paying 1x for the Force, so you need at least a 4:1 payout to make it profitable (i.e., don’t Force trips-only hands).

Simple Two Player Collusion

If you’re friendly with your table-neighbor, you can slightly modify basic strategy to get a +EV return of +0.43% on the Ante. The drawing decision is modified accordingly:

Only take insurance when you and your neighbor hold 3 total copies of the upcard, Queen or lower. Never insure against an Ace or King upcard.

Finally, modify the 2x Raise decision:

• Call any 2:1 pay or better, else
• Fold pair deuces against uncopied upcard 3 thru Q, else
• Call any other pair, else
• Call any hand when you and your neighbor hold all 3 copies of the dealer upcard Queen or lower, else
• Call AKJ83 or better when you and your neighbor hold any copies of the upcard, else
• Call AK when you and your neighbor hold 2 copies of the dealer upcard Queen or lower, else
• Fold all others.