Discount Gambling

G3 Poker Progressive @ Barona

Posted in progressive sidebets by stephenhow on September 17, 2011

All the carnival games at Barona (Three-Card Poker, Four-Card Poker, Caribbean Stud, Mississippi Stud, etc.) share the same G3 5-card poker progressive.

Hand Payout Probability Return
Royal Flush 100% 1.5391 x 10-6 jackpot/649,740
Straight Flush 10% 1.3852 x 10-5 jackpot/721,933
4-of-a-Kind 500-for-1 2.4010 x 10-4 0.120048
Bad Hand* 250-for-1 3.9400 x 10-4 0.098501
Full House 100-for-1 1.4406 x 10-3 0.144058
Flush 50-for-1 1.9654 x 10-3 0.098270
Straight 20-for-1 3.9246 x 10-3 0.078493
Magic Card** 20-for-1 3.6982 x 10-3 0.073964
all others 0-for-1 ~ 98.8% 0
total 0.613334 +
jackpot/341,968

So the break even point for the jackpot is $132,227.

*Bad Hand = 7-5-4-3-2
**Magic Card frequency assumed @ 1/26 (from DEQ published data)

Pai-Gow Progressive @ Barona

Posted in pai-gow poker, progressive sidebets by stephenhow on September 17, 2011

The Pai-Gow progressive jackpot often gets very large at Barona, so here’s the breakdown, if you feel like playing it sometimes:

Hand Payout Probability Return
5 Aces 100% 7.3179 x 10-6 jackpot/136,651
5-of-a-Kind 1000-for-1 8.7815 x 10-5 0.087815
Royal Flush 500-for-1 1.7563 x 10-4 0.087815
Bad Hand* 250-for-1 1.0082 x 10-4 0.025204
Straight Flush 100-for-1 1.4503 x 10-3 0.145034
4-of-a-Kind 20-for-1 7.2935 x 10-3 0.145870
Magic Card** 20-for-1 5.0798 x 10-3 0.101597
all others 0-for-1 ~ 98.6% 0
total 0.593335 +
jackpot/136,651

So the break-even point for the jackpot is $55,571. Last month, someone hit it for $125k. That means the EV was 1.51, while it lasted.

*Bad Hand = 9-high, no 6, no flush
**Magic Card frequency assumed @ 1/26 (from DEQ, the game publisher)

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