Comments on: Spanish 21

By: ZenMaster_Flash

ZenMaster_Flash — Fri, 18 May 2012 12:12:31 +0000

The MD side bet has a large house edge of 2.99%
learn to keep your trap shut and do NOT tell others how to play.
just tell them that you are unlucky and that you obey your hunches.

By: Jimmer Flimmer

Jimmer Flimmer — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:56:40 +0000

Match the Dealer is a terrible bet. I was just curious what the actual odds are because a lot of people I see plying take this bet just because they feel like a baller when the suited match comes out, and I like to make fun of them especially if they ask me why I’m not playing my MD. The way I figure it is you have any two cards (let’s assume they are always two different cards. If they are not it’s even worse for you). Then there are only 7 perfect match cards left in the entire shoe (assuming none already came out which I think again if it were any different, it would be worse for the player). Using 8 decks (which is what my local place does) 8*48 minus the 2 that you have is 382. So 382 to 7 odds of a perfect match or about 55 to 1. You have two cards however and so two chances to match, so your overall chance of winning is about 27 to 1. But I’m going to tell people 30 to 1 to make it seem like a big difference from the measly 12 to 1 theyre getting.

I just want to point out that when I play Spanish 21 I get absolutely no heat at all. I am only 21 though and dont play all the time, but I feel that I would have to be winning for a looooong time before anyone became suspicious.

By: Steven George

Steven George — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 01:24:02 +0000

Yes, where I play they do enforce the restriction of not playing the MD on other players’ spots. The play of multiple hands is allowed and ENCOURAGED! I have seen them actually open a new Spanish table solely for the purpose to allow a single whale to play 7 spots “heads-up”. I know of only two locations that allow the MD to be greater than the regular bet. One of these places has recently lowered their max MD to $50.

By: Steven George

Steven George — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 01:15:04 +0000

EXACTLY correct! EOR applies only to sizing and playing the HAND bet strategy. It has NO impact on the relative frequency of one set of 6 denominations vs its opposite set of 6. And it is this measure that makes the MD advantage possible.

By: zenmasterflash

zenmasterflash — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 21:30:42 +0000

Note: The official rules for Span21, as promulgated by Masque Publishing, prevent the player from betting more on the M.T.D bet than on the regular bet. Also forbidden is placing such a bet on another player’s hand or playing more than two hands yourself.

Of course, where the game is offered by a casino that is a tribal enterprise rules may or may not be observed.

By: EmeraldCityBJ

EmeraldCityBJ — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 20:49:40 +0000

EOR for this bet is pretty meaningless. Each single card, regardless of rank and suit will produce the same EOR. To see an EOR difference, you have to remove various combinations of two or more cards.

By: EmeraldCityBJ

EmeraldCityBJ — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 20:46:39 +0000

The $30-40 per hour win rate I posted assumed that both the up and down match were available. The systems I simmed are similar, but probably not quite as good as the one you suggest. Regardless, I still think you’re making less than $50 per hour and that your risk of ruin with a $9k bankroll is through the roof. With a $100k bankroll, I’d be hesitant to bet much more than quarters on the match bet. I may be more risk-averse, and generally play with a RoR of 1% or less.

By: zenmasterflash

zenmasterflash — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 18:48:04 +0000

The statement:

“I use 2-thru-7 for +1 (paint,9,8,A are minus)”

suggests that the poster imagines that he can ignore the E.O.R. of the card ranks.

By: Steven George

Steven George — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 18:24:37 +0000

Your comment about playing non-stop for 124 years is irrelevant to the problem solution. The extremely rare (non existent) chance of 144 consecutive small cards being dealt from the top of a reshuffle is only intended to illustrate the upper limit of a possible player advantage. It only demonstrates that EV does change on the MD side bet.
The two other, more positive replies, also deserve my response.
First, without having BOTH the up-card AND down-card match, it is true that the variance it too great to justify a single max $100 MD on the “up-card only” circle. The loss of playing basic on the hand offsets all MD efforts. However, with the additional opportunity to match the down card at the SAME time, the variance is reduced to an acceptable level. I have found that in general only 1 shoe in 6 will offer more than a single opportunity to bet the $100 MD on both circles. And that with the “up-card only” available the bankroll must be about $9,000. With both up-and-down matches present, $2,300 is nearly always enough to avoid busting out Note that where I play it is permissible to wager max on MD and min on hand. Some places don’t allow the MD to be greater than hand (this kills my strategy).
Second, I said “balanced level 1″. This means start at zero and end at zero. It means +1 for 6 denominations and -1 for the other 6 denominations. It makes NO DIFFERENCE which 6 you choose for +1 or -1. You could randomly choose 2,3,7,9,J,K for +1 if you don’t want to match them. Simply pick the 6 that makes it easiest for you to not make counting mistakes. I use 2-thru-7 for +1 (paint,9,8,A are minus). For simplicity, I only go by running count (no true count math). This means that I always wait until the fifth round to decide if max MD is a go having at least a +10 running count. The casino where I play always deals more than 4 decks between shuffles, so I still get enough opportunities at greater than +9 running count. Also, if the running count drops from, for example, +15 to +9 late in the shoe, I will stay with BOTH $100 MD bets one more round. The opportunity exist to “jump-in” with two hands and a total $400 on MD. This causes extreme hostility at the table when you do get a suited match. Other players think that you have just “stolen” their good hand and that you have “screwed up” a good shoe. So, I don’t ever play more than just one hand.

By: zenmasterflash

zenmasterflash — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 13:48:01 +0000

EmeraldCityBJ knows of what he speaks; however using some specialized count to track the likelihood of a profitable “match the dealer” bet would have the player utilizing just basic strategy in order to play his hands while flat-betting. Overall, the losses from that strategy will never be recouped by the rare opportunity to bet M.T.D. This ought to be plainly obvious, although a two-person mini-team approach would overcome that fault.