A: 0

2: -2

3: -2

4: -5

5: -5

6: -7

7: -7

8: 10

9: 10

10, J, Q, K: 2

If I use the following unbalanced tags, what will the running count need to be in order to make it a profitable bet?

A: 0

2: -2

3: -3

4: -4

5: -5

6: -6

7: -7

8: 10

9: 10

10, J, Q, K: 2

Thank you!

]]>Use the unbalanced count.

]]>Dear Stephenhow,

use TC>4 or TC>5; get the same result.

can you tell me which variance is low ? and if i bet 100 usd, how much money i have to prepare?

Jack

]]>Thanks,

Alan

]]>I’ll be very appreciated if you could send me the source code and maybe some research… ðŸ™‚

Thank you!

Swanson

Swanson,

In my code, I use decksRemaining(handNumber) = (416 – 4.94*handNumber)/52.0, where handNumber starts at 0. So, for your example on the 40th hand, decksRemaining = (416 – 4.94(39))/52.0 = 4.295, and the minimum RC would be ceil(5*4.295) = ceil(21.475) = 22. I used the ceiling function as a conservative method to limit bets to +EV counts. You might be able to make an argument to use the round() function instead of ceil(), but its not going to make much of a difference.

I worked with Eliot extensively over these simulations, until our results matched up exactly. He had a different definition of decks remaining (he used an integer, rounded or something), which made his true count threshold different than the 5.0 I use. However, he obtained the same profit per shoe as I did (+0.53) in his simulations.

Are you looking into seriously playing the dragon-7? I can send you source code if it’ll help.

Steve

]]>Am I right concerning the calculations below?

Assume the average number of cards per hand is 5 cards and the min. requirement for betting the dragon is TC5. The decks remaining = (416-hand numberÃ—average number of cards per hand)/52. For example, the hand number is 40 now.

So the min. required RC = (416-hand numberÃ—average number of cards per hand)/52Ã—5 = (416-40Ã—5)/52Ã—5=20.77 but why it’s slightly different from 22 which is in your tracking sheet? Is that Eliot used the same method?

Thank you!

Swanson