Discount Gambling

Updates to +EV Mississippi Stud @ Barona Casino

Posted in +EV, mississippi stud by stephenhow on January 21, 2011

I revisited the collusion strategy for full-table (6 players), all cards exposed Mississippi Stud, as dealt at my nearby Barona Casino. I fixed a few small decision points, and calculated the EVs of the threshold points, so you can see the value of marginal calls and folds. When I play again, I’ll probably bring this chart to the table. Notice any return less than -1.0 on 3rd street is a fold (folding costs you your ante, but calling would cost more). Similarly, any return less than -2.0 on 4th street is a fold. And any return less than -3.0 on the river is a fold. For example, calling 1x on 5th street with only 2 high outs and 4 mid outs is going to cost you (-3.16)($5) = $15.80, whereas folding would limit your loss to $15. On average, this “chase” is going to cost you $0.80 more than folding. As another example, calling unsuited cards with only 2 high outs and 1 mid out on 3rd street is going to cost you (0.07)($5) = $0.35 more than folding, on average.

There are a lot of players that play way too many hands, as they don’t want to miss a payout. You can see that even the most marginal of folds is around (0.1)($5) = $0.50 for each bad decision. This can add up over each hand, and each bad decision (sometimes multiple bad decisions per hand). Often, people make multiple bad decisions per hand, making worse than -0.10 mistakes (literally, off the below chart), and betting more than $5 Antes.

Common Decision Points for 6 Player, Full-Exposure Mississippi Stud
Outs 1x EV Notes
High Mid Low
3rd Street (Offsuit)
3 0 0 -0.77 Call
2 2 -0.79 Call
2 1 -1.07 Fold
2 0 3 -1.05 Fold
1 3 -0.99 Call
1 2 -1.31 Fold
0 5 -0.71 Call
0 4 -1.12 Fold
0 3 3 -0.95 Call
0 0 6 -1.43 Fold
0 0 4 -1.86 Fold
3rd Street (Suited)
2 0 -0.87 Call
1 2 0 -0.96 Call
0 4 -0.75 Call
0 3 3 -0.71 Call
0 3 2 -0.98 Call
0 0 6 -1.20 Fold
0 0 4 -1.59 Fold
4th Street
3 2 -1.75 Call
3 1 -1.96 Call
3 0 5 -1.94 Call
3 0 4 -2.02 Fold
3 A’s 0 4 -1.86 Call
2 4 -1.77 Call
2 3 -1.93 Call
2 2 3 -2.10 Fold
2 1 4 -2.14 Fold
1 5 -1.95 Call
1 4 -2.13 Fold
0 6 -1.87 Call
0 5 3 -2.09 Fold
5th Street
5 -2.68 Call
4 2 -2.95 Call
4 1 -3.05 Fold
4 0 -3.16 Fold
3 4 -2.94 Call
2 6 -2.95 Call
2 5 -3.05 Fold
2 4 -3.16 Fold
1 8 -2.95 Call
0 9 -3.05 Fold

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