G3 Poker Progressive @ Barona
All the carnival games at Barona (Three-Card Poker, Four-Card Poker, Caribbean Stud, Mississippi Stud, etc.) share the same G3 5-card poker progressive.
| Hand | Payout | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 100% | 1.5391 x 10-6 | jackpot/649,740 |
| Straight Flush | 10% | 1.3852 x 10-5 | jackpot/721,933 |
| 4-of-a-Kind | 500-for-1 | 2.4010 x 10-4 | 0.120048 |
| Bad Hand* | 250-for-1 | 3.9400 x 10-4 | 0.098501 |
| Full House | 100-for-1 | 1.4406 x 10-3 | 0.144058 |
| Flush | 50-for-1 | 1.9654 x 10-3 | 0.098270 |
| Straight | 20-for-1 | 3.9246 x 10-3 | 0.078493 |
| Magic Card** | 20-for-1 | 3.6982 x 10-3 | 0.073964 |
| all others | 0-for-1 | ~ 98.8% | 0 |
| total | 0.613334 + jackpot/341,968 |
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So the break even point for the jackpot is $132,227.
*Bad Hand = 7-5-4-3-2
**Magic Card frequency assumed @ 1/26 (from DEQ published data)
Pai-Gow Progressive @ Barona
The Pai-Gow progressive jackpot often gets very large at Barona, so here’s the breakdown, if you feel like playing it sometimes:
| Hand | Payout | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aces | 100% | 7.3179 x 10-6 | jackpot/136,651 |
| 5-of-a-Kind | 1000-for-1 | 8.7815 x 10-5 | 0.087815 |
| Royal Flush | 500-for-1 | 1.7563 x 10-4 | 0.087815 |
| Bad Hand* | 250-for-1 | 1.0082 x 10-4 | 0.025204 |
| Straight Flush | 100-for-1 | 1.4503 x 10-3 | 0.145034 |
| 4-of-a-Kind | 20-for-1 | 7.2935 x 10-3 | 0.145870 |
| Magic Card** | 20-for-1 | 5.0798 x 10-3 | 0.101597 |
| all others | 0-for-1 | ~ 98.6% | 0 |
| total | 0.593335 + jackpot/136,651 |
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So the break-even point for the jackpot is $55,571. Last month, someone hit it for $125k. That means the EV was 1.51, while it lasted.
*Bad Hand = 9-high, no 6, no flush
**Magic Card frequency assumed @ 1/26 (from DEQ, the game publisher)
Discount Gambling 
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