G3 Poker Progressive @ Barona
All the carnival games at Barona (Three-Card Poker, Four-Card Poker, Caribbean Stud, Mississippi Stud, etc.) share the same G3 5-card poker progressive.
| Hand | Payout | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 100% | 1.5391 x 10-6 | jackpot/649,740 |
| Straight Flush | 10% | 1.3852 x 10-5 | jackpot/721,933 |
| 4-of-a-Kind | 500-for-1 | 2.4010 x 10-4 | 0.120048 |
| Bad Hand* | 250-for-1 | 3.9400 x 10-4 | 0.098501 |
| Full House | 100-for-1 | 1.4406 x 10-3 | 0.144058 |
| Flush | 50-for-1 | 1.9654 x 10-3 | 0.098270 |
| Straight | 20-for-1 | 3.9246 x 10-3 | 0.078493 |
| Magic Card** | 20-for-1 | 3.6982 x 10-3 | 0.073964 |
| all others | 0-for-1 | ~ 98.8% | 0 |
| total | 0.613334 + jackpot/341,968 |
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So the break even point for the jackpot is $132,227.
*Bad Hand = 7-5-4-3-2
**Magic Card frequency assumed @ 1/26 (from DEQ published data)
Discount Gambling 
Hi Steve,
I noticed your bad hand return is slightly incorrect. It looks like you came up with 1024 combinations for this hand, but you forgot to subtract the 4 ways to make a flush. This leaves you with 1020 comb., 0.0003925 probability, and 0.098116 return.
It’s a small difference, but should be noted.