Discount Gambling

Pai-Gow Progressive @ Barona

Posted in pai-gow poker, progressive sidebets by stephenhow on September 17, 2011

The Pai-Gow progressive jackpot often gets very large at Barona, so here’s the breakdown, if you feel like playing it sometimes:

Hand Payout Probability Return
5 Aces 100% 7.3179 x 10-6 jackpot/136,651
5-of-a-Kind 1000-for-1 8.7815 x 10-5 0.087815
Royal Flush 500-for-1 1.7563 x 10-4 0.087815
Bad Hand* 250-for-1 1.0082 x 10-4 0.025204
Straight Flush 100-for-1 1.4503 x 10-3 0.145034
4-of-a-Kind 20-for-1 7.2935 x 10-3 0.145870
Magic Card** 20-for-1 5.0798 x 10-3 0.101597
all others 0-for-1 ~ 98.6% 0
total 0.593335 +

So the break-even point for the jackpot is $55,571. Last month, someone hit it for $125k. That means the EV was 1.51, while it lasted.

*Bad Hand = 9-high, no 6, no flush
**Magic Card frequency assumed @ 1/26 (from DEQ, the game publisher)

2 Responses

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  1. Gary Hochman said, on December 25, 2011 at 7:50 am

    Ref: Mississippi Stud

    The problem with your analysis is that your work is based upon a absolute random mix of the cards. That is not what happens. As the cards get grease and mosture on them, it is more difficult to get an acceptable house shuffle. The cards that stay to the end, have a bias of higher point values and pairs that tend to stay together in the same part of the deck. So when the cards come back, there is a bais of getting better cards. You do not take that into account. My best payoffs have been based upon bias decks. Your friend, Gary

    • stephenhow said, on December 25, 2011 at 9:08 am

      Speaking of biased decks, one of the dealers on Friday night completely bent up the 3-of-clubs of one of the decks. It totally bowed up, and you could see it a mile off. Then I thought of this guy that’s come in only a few times, but was very memorable. He plays like he knows what’s under 3rd, 4th, and 5th Streets. He bets big and crazy, but seems to hit hands. I thought he was sneaking a peak at 5th Street, but now that I think of it, he’s probably marking the cards.

      Yes, my analysis is only for randomly shuffled cards. I wouldn’t be surprised if the shuffler did a bad job of mixing up the cards. On Friday, one of the iDeal shufflers kept jamming, so the floor supervisor had to repeatedly clear it. She opened up the hood, and the cards were all clumped up in only 3 slots of the shuffling wheel. There’s way over 40 slots, so to see that the cards weren’t distributed within them was somewhat disturbing.

      See you soon @ Mississippi,

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