Lucky Draw Baccarat
While visiting the TCSJohnHuxley booth at G2E last week, I played at the Lucky Draw Baccarat demo table. It’s a fun game that plays like midi-baccarat, where you can squeeze your draw card. Each player wagers an initial bet, and receives their own 2-card starting hand. Everyone plays against the bank hand, whose first card is exposed. Each player may wager an optional 1x Draw bet to receive a 3rd card, or otherwise stand pat. After the action is complete, the banker reveals his hole card. The bank draws a 3rd card when his two-card total is less than five points. Otherwise the bank stands with 5 points or more.
The game is fun, because winning hands pay odds for drawn 7, 8, and 9 totals. The player makes a decision based on his 2-card total, and the exposed bank upcard. Winning hands pay even-money on the initial wager, and odds on the 1x Draw bet according to the paytable:
Outcome | Paytable 1 | Paytable 2 |
---|---|---|
Lucky 9 (3-card 9) | 3-to-1 | 3-to-1 |
Lucky 8 (3-card 8) | 2-to-1 | 2-to-1 |
Lucky 7 (3-card 7) | 2-to-1 | 3-to-2 |
6 or less | 1-to-1 | 1-to-1 |
I analyzed the game to check the house edge, and to run EORs. The outcomes for an 8-deck shoe and optimal player decisions are listed below.
Outcome | Combinations | Frequency | Net | Return |
---|---|---|---|---|
Win w/ Lucky 9 | 134,129,168,192,512 | 0.053669 | 4 | +0.214675 |
Win w/ Lucky 8 | 98,365,258,946,560 | 0.039359 | 3 | +0.118076 |
Win w/ Lucky 7 | 93,724,551,243,776 | 0.037502 | 3 | +0.112506 |
Win on draw | 260,100,744,978,432 | 0.104074 | 2 | +0.208147 |
Lose on draw | 976,828,113,772,544 | 0.390856 | -2 | -0.781713 |
Tie on draw | 165,885,343,716,480 | 0.066375 | 0 | +0.000000 |
Win on stand | 471,832,788,590,592 | 0.188794 | 1 | +0.188794 |
Lose on stand | 195,977,691,906,048 | 0.078416 | -1 | -0.078416 |
Tie on stand | 102,355,476,404,736 | 0.040955 | 0 | +0.000000 |
Total | 2,499,199,137,751,680 | 1.000000 | -0.017931 |
The house edge for Paytable 1 is 1.79%, and 3.34% for Paytable 2.
The basic strategy for the Paytable 1 game is shown in the table below.
Total | Upcard | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
9 | D | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
8 | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
7 | D | D | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
6 | D | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S | S |
5 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | S | S |
4 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | S |
3 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | S |
2 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
1 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
0 | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
The computed single-card EORs for an 8-deck game with Paytable 1 are fairly low. Still, I checked the countability of an 8-deck shoe, assuming only 15 cards cut off the end. For the simple count below, the game gets advantageous only 3.2% of the time (count is +40 or better), and for an average of only +0.23%/bet. That’s essentially worthless. You might pick up some additional edge with indexed plays, or better yet, using a computer and full knowledge of shoe composition. But overall, this game is surprisingly uncountable, given the options and the odds on the Draw bet.
Removed | EOR | Unbalanced |
---|---|---|
Deuce | -0.020302% | -1 |
Trey | -0.012306% | -1 |
Four | -0.027603% | -1 |
Five | +0.025698% | +1 |
Six | +0.023507% | +1 |
Seven | +0.015953% | +1 |
Eight | +0.033915% | +2 |
Nine | +0.050682% | +2 |
Ten/Face | -0.016883% | -1 |
Ace | +0.017983% | +1 |
I like Lucky-Draw Baccarat.
Mr CasinoGames
The only live version of this I’ve seen used Paytable 2, where I think you stand on all 6s and above, otherwise as above. It’s a shame as I would have preferred the correct strategy to hit 9s vs 0 and surely it would be easier for the house not to deal with 1/2 bets. Also quite a few had the wrong strategy, so the practical HE was higher. The table I know about in the UK is now flipped for a Bacarrat variant which is a shame as I enjoyed the Blackjack nature of the game.