Discount Gambling

Simulations For PlayCraps™ @ Viejas Casino, CA

Posted in card craps by stephenhow on August 20, 2009

Using the improved don’t pass counting system, using a trailing six roll window, as described in the previous post:

Point Conditions to lay (max) don’t pass odds
4 running count over the last 6 rolls <= -2
5 seen at most 2 fives or sixes in the last 6 rolls
6 seen at most 1 six in the last 6 rolls
8 seen at most 1 ace in the last 6 rolls
9 seen at most 2 aces or deuces in the last 6 rolls
10 running count over the last 6 rolls >= 2

where the running count is incremented when both die are high (>= 4), and decremented when both die are low (<= 3).

Applying 10x don't pass odds, I simulated the game using my model for the CSM (continuous shuffling machine), and I got the following results:

Macintosh:Debug show$ ./playcraps -a -m14 -n100000000 -r
max muck depth: 14, CSM buffer depth: 10, rolls: 1.0e+08
net: +584729, EV: +0.58% per roll

Macintosh:Debug show$ ./playcraps -a -m20 -n100000000 -r
max muck depth: 20, CSM buffer depth: 10, rolls: 1.0e+08
net: +621717, EV: +0.62% per roll

Macintosh:Debug show$ ./playcraps -a -m20 -b6 -n100000000 -r
max muck depth: 20, CSM buffer depth: 6, rolls: 1.0e+08
net: +646693, EV: +0.65% per roll, +2.18% per come out

meaning that the dealer shuffles the muck back into the CSM when it’s more than 14 cards deep. The CSM is modeled with a buffer depth of 10, meaning that the earliest a card can come back out of the shoe is 10 rolls after any shuffle.
The results show that you’ll win +0.58% of your don’t pass bet, on average, per roll. So, for a $5 don’t pass bet, you’ll make $.029/roll, when laying 10x don’t pass odds according to the above table. Note the results improve a little if the dealer allows the muck to collect a little longer (+0.62%/roll for a 20 max card muck).

Note how the count scheme is insensitive to the buffer depth modeled in the CSM. When I decreased it to 6 rolls (12 cards), the return actually improved a little. In the last simulation, I also calculated the return per come out, which came out to +2.18% of the don’t pass bet. Again, that’s only about $0.10 per $5 don’t pass bet.

It’s not a lot of money. Even at a fast 500 roll/hr, you’re only making $14.50/hr. The bankroll requirements for this strategy are large, because you’re laying $100 to win $50 against the 4/10. It’s probably not an option to try and grind this game out. However, if you like playing don’t pass craps, then at least you’re getting the psychological benefit of a $14.50/hr tailwind 🙂

Note that just playing blind 10x don’t pass odds gives you the same ~2% EV. Employing a count scheme is just reducing your 10x odds variance a little from ~35 to ~32 (its still huge). I enjoy varying my odds with every roll. It only takes a small amount of effort, and it makes me feel like I’m in control.

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4 Responses

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  1. leon said, on November 3, 2009 at 10:01 pm

    This is one of the twins that you met at pauma casino that one night..
    been using ur strategy guide that u gave me and it has been working really well for me. i have been going up to pauma a lot and using it. the guide is like gold.just wanted to say thanks

  2. stephenhow said, on November 3, 2009 at 11:18 pm

    Thanks Leon, that’s great to hear! It was really fun playing that night. Its good to play with people with positive attitudes and energy. BTW, I think that Viejas is 18+, if you guys want to learn craps 🙂 I had a good craps session tonight, and won about the same amount as the last time we played UTH.

  3. Rozy said, on July 9, 2010 at 12:29 pm

    Using the improved don’t pass counting system, using a trailing six roll window, as described in the previous post:

    Point Conditions to lay (max) don’t pass odds
    4 running count over the last 6 rolls = 2

    I understand this but what values are you giving to each card to acheive a running count. I understand that the count is only completed over the last (6) rolls or deals but is there a specific + or – assigned to an individual card??

    • stephenhow said, on July 10, 2010 at 2:05 pm

      The weighted count values are per roll (2 card combinations), as detailed in the main cards craps page. There’s also a practice game on that page that shows how the whole system works.


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