2009 UTH Win/Loss Statement
I just learned that all casinos are required to provide a player with an annual win/loss statement on request. This is to provide a player with an estimate of his net win or loss at the casino for the calendar year, in case you need to write off gambling losses against a W2-G win. The casinos seem to take this regulation pretty seriously, since I see that every $100 buy-in needs supervisor approval, as does every color-out at the end of a session. The floor supervisor enters the data at the console (usually attached to the table), and everyone is tracked.
So yesterday, I was playing Ultimate Texas Hold’em (UTH) as usual, at Harrah’s, on my usual route of the four north San Diego county casinos (Harrah’s, Pauma, Pala, and sometimes Pechanga). I’d been playing exclusively UTH at these casinos for about three months now, logging in about 300 hours total. I’d been doing well, and I knew I wasn’t just donating to the casino (i.e., ATM -> UTH -> casino). So, I just decided to see if I could get my 2009 Win/Loss Statement at each of these casinos.
| Casino | Buy-In | Cash-Out | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harrah’s Rincon | -$9.74 | ||
| Casino Pauma | $17,840.55 | $18,001.30 | +$160.75 |
| Pala | +$170 | ||
| Pechanga | +$300 | ||
| Total | +$621.01 |
As far as discount gambling goes, I’m claiming success. On average, I should lose about $3.50/hr ($.12/hand), so my 300 hours in 2009 should have totaled to a $1000 loss. So I’m way ahead of the mean here. Also, from what I see at the tables, I’m sure most players don’t want to see their win/loss statements for the year. That’s because most people are afraid to 4x raise preflop according to basic strategy. They’re constantly checking monsters like ATo, KJo, 66, QJo, etc. Then they still check their pairs on the flop, I guess waiting for their hands to improve at the river. They make so many mistakes, they’re probably giving the house an average 10%+ edge. They never bet their hands, and they forfeit the huge +46% Play bet edge. I just see people play passively, re-buying until they bust out. And these people are regulars, who see me all the time, but they won’t stop checking. Maybe if they read this post, they’ll start betting.
Discount Gambling 
This is the only game that gives me motivation to go to casino. I love this game as you can always see the river..
This game is definitely “poker crack”. You get to see all flops, and make decisions at a few points. That’s why the WPT hold’em game (3x All-In) is really dumb. One preflop decision, and see what happens. And, in that game you have to bet hands like 85o, and there’s only one size bet. UTH plays something like poker; real poker players like it. Its the only game I play, and I still can’t get enough. UTH is to poker like freebasing is to cocaine.
Steve,
Just got back from Harrahs Rincon.
Spent two days using your 4X bet table.
I only won $100 BUT I was never really behind the whole time.
Thought I would see you there.
Tom (retired navy dude)
Based on my math, you should only raise 4 times when odds of winning are > 66%. Since the mean starting hand is Q7 one must assume two overs with small pairs (2-6) that the odds of winning are only 52%. Even laying 3:2 odds (three times ante) is a bad bet when less than a 1.1:1 favorite. Also, waiting post flop minimizes exposure to straight and flush draws as well as gives you better pot odds to call as 40% of the time unknown cards will not pair on flop and only about 25% on river. Since you’re matching your pot odds, you only need to bet when odds are > 50%. Just about any pair and A or K meets this point, especially on a paired flop. After river, your pot odds are 1:2, so you should play anything that gives you > 33% chance of winning. I am a dealer and see so many people lose with PP and A-high that it makes me want to rethink this basic strategy; I am also a poker player and understand pot odds, which is where I see why many players lose over time. To me, this is just limit Hold’em heads up (and maybe gather other people’s cards for more info). If one continues to lay 2:1 odds when only a slight favorite, they will lose over the long run. I also do not play the trips bet, which eliminates this from my calculations. That also returns the almost 14% house edge on that bet. Sometimes saving a bet is as good as winning a bet. If one checks their pocket 4s on the flop with three overs and good flush/straight probabilities, saving the three bets is huge (over betting 4x preflop). Just because you will always call the river, doesn’t mean you should max bet preflop. This also maximizes winnings while minimizes losses. Sure, when I flop trips I wish I bet 4 times, but since the odds of that happening are only 12%, I’m happy getting the proper pot odds. I haven’t played lately, but won $800 over 8 hours using this strategy (I played the $1 progressive and flopped a FH and quads that helped).
I am confused on what your 4x stradegy bets would be. You say that just about any pair and A or K meets this point but then you say so many people lose with PP or A high you want to rethink Basic Stradegy? What do you consider good bets for 4x? 2x?