Discount Gambling

Easy Way To Play +EV Mississippi Stud

Posted in +EV, mississippi stud by stephenhow on May 21, 2011

A lot of people love Mississippi Stud, but at a 5% house edge, the game is fairly expensive. On the other hand, if you can count your “outs” during the hand at a full table, you have a 1.5% player advantage over the house! That’s a 6.5% EV swing, and it’s a pretty simply matter to keep track of your outs. I’ll show you how to do this, without getting the floorman or the dealers upset with you.

First, you’ll need to play at a full table of 6 players. You only need to commute with the players at the start of the hand. On 4th and 5th Street, its very simple to track your outs, just by looking at the player bets (3x means they hit the board). So the key is finding out how many outs you have at the start of the hand. There’s a few ways to do this (all verbal).

The best way to share info is for each player to quietly announce their hand, in order. Each player says just what their hand is, e.g., “King Five” or “Ace Deuce” or “Six Trey”. This is a quick process, and takes a few seconds. No one asks anything, and there’s no talking over each other. Just listen, and each player knows exactly how many “outs” he has left.

This method requires cooperation, and can probably only work with friends. If you can’t get the players to follow this scheme, you still might be able to count your outs. You quietly announce your hand, look around (make eye contact with everyone) and hopefully they raise their fingers to tell you if they have your cards.

Ok, so lets say you know how many “outs” you have at the start of the hand. As you know from my collusion analyses, you know what the starting hands are (e.g., 5 mid outs, 3 high outs, 2 high and 2 mid outs, etc.). You make your 3rd Street bet accordingly.

The dealer then turns up 3rd Street on the board. You can tell by the 3x bets, how many “outs” remain for this card. For example, say 3rd Street is a Jack, and 2 people start betting 3x on the Jack. Almost certainly, that means there’s only one Jack left, so you can only add one high “out” to your hand. Or, let’s say that 3rd Street was an Ace, and nobody bets 3x on the card (and no one is screaming “three of a kind!”) Then, you can safely assume 3 more high outs for your hand.

It’s pretty simple to know if you should 1x bet to see 4th Street. You typically need 3 high outs, or 2 high outs and 4 mid outs, or 1 high out and 6 mid outs. See my decision charts for more details (e.g., low outs), but these are basically your thresholds.

The dealer then turns up 4th Street of the community cards, and again, it’s simple to see how many “outs” you’ve picked up. On 4th Street, low outs no longer matter. You typically need 5 high outs, or 4 high and 2 mid outs, or 3 high and 4 mid outs, or 2 high and 6 mid outs, or 1 high and 8 mid outs to 1x bet and see 5th Street. Again, see my decision charts for complete info, and details for raising draws.

That’s it. When you play the game with collusion, you should only be thinking about how many outs you have. Usually, I just care about high and mid outs. I don’t count my low outs, and just assume I have none. I don’t give up much EV with this tighter strategy. If you have a poker mind, this should be an easy way to play the game. Of course, you should practice on my flash game, which includes a 6 player collusion mode with your outs counted and displayed.

One Response

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  1. Tom Mc said, on May 21, 2011 at 11:54 am

    Played at Harrah’s a few days ago.
    Wife and I are “squatters” I lost a little but she won $900 . No big hands. One gal hit quads for 4 K.


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