Discount Gambling

Simplified +EV Collusion For WPT-3x All-In (4 Players)

Posted in +EV, collusion, wpt3x by stephenhow on May 30, 2011

I cleaned up my +EV collusion strategy for the World Poker Tour 3x All-In Hold’Em casino table game, because my old strategy was basically unplayable. I’ve simplified the strategy to focus on copied cards, and to ignore the high cards that only slightly lower the probability of the dealer qualifying. I optimized the strategy for four players, since I wanted a +EV worth playing for.

I always see the game at the Bellagio, when I walk through it on my way to the Forum Shops at Caesar’s. It’s also dealt at my local Sycuan Casino. I always tell my friends we should play it, but no one has any interest in +EV play, or carnival games. I figure someone out there sees the value in sharing hole card info for this game, since it starts with a mere 0.74% house edge. The following simplified collusion strategy simulates at a player advantage of about 0.31%.

The game is really simple, and other than the bad bonus bets, is not very exciting. Each player posts an Ante to start the game. The player then receives 2 down cards, which combined with the 5 card board, makes a Hold’Em poker hand. The dealer also receives two down cards, for his Hold’Em hand. You look at your 2 down cards and decide to either 3x raise “all-in”, or fold and lose the Ante. Once the players action is complete, the dealer turns up his hole cards. The dealer hand qualifies if it’s a pair, or has a blackjack value of 11 or greater. If the dealer doesn’t qualify, the remaining players win the Ante bet, and the 3x Raise bet pushes. If the dealer qualifies, then he deals the flop, turn, and river. The dealer’s Hold’Em hand is compared to each player’s Hold’Em hand. If the player has the higher hand, he wins even money on the Ante and the 3x Raise. If the dealer has the higher hand, the player loses both bets. If the hands are equal, the bets push.

The basic strategy is very simple. You’re supposed to 3x raise any pair or suited hand. The only hands you fold are 23o thru 28o, and 34o, 36o, and 37o. (That’s deuce-trey thru deuce-eight offsuit, and trey-four, trey-six, and trey-seven offsuit.)

The collusion strategy is also very simple. You 3x raise anything, unless you’re copied. Fold a weak hand (the basic strategy folding hands) if copied. Slightly stronger hands are still played if only copied once. You always play a Jack or better.

If four players share down card info, then the players have about a 0.31% edge over the house. The players need to know if their hole cards are copied by their neighbors. Here’s the modified strategy:

Hand Basic Strategy 4-Player Strategy
23o thru 28o Fold 3x Raise if no copies
29o, 2To 3x Raise 3x Raise if no copies
34o, 36o, 37o Fold 3x Raise if no copies
35o 3x Raise 3x Raise if no copies
38o 3x Raise 3x Raise if no copies
39o 3x Raise 3x Raise if ≤ 1 copies
3To 3x Raise 3x Raise if ≤ 2 copies
45o 3x Raise 3x Raise if ≤ 2 copies
23s thru 28s 3x Raise 3x Raise if no copies, or 1 copy and ≤ 1 suit seen
29s, 2Ts 3x Raise 3x Raise if ≤ 1 copies, or 2 copies and ≤ 1 suit seen
34s thru 37s 3x Raise 3x Raise if no copies, or 1 copy and ≤ 1 suit seen
38s 3x Raise 3x Raise if ≤ 1 copies, or 2 copies and ≤ 1 suit seen
39s 3x Raise 3x Raise if ≤ 1 copies, or ≤ 1 suit seen
3Ts 3x Raise 3x Raise if ≤ 2 copies, or ≤ 1 suit seen

Additionally, you should fold triple-copied offsuit hands T2 thru T6, 92 thru 96, 82 thru 85, 72 thru 76, 62 thru 65, and 54.

7 Responses

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  1. Ted said, on May 31, 2011 at 12:41 am

    I think you mean The Mirage, not Mandalay Bay (Mirage is next to Forum Shops).

    I played at Bellagio with two Russians betting the max of $100 on the ante. I was betting $5, of course. Was fun. They wouldn’t rate me, but I had a peach Bellini.

    • stephenhow said, on May 31, 2011 at 1:04 am

      I’ve definitely played it at the Mirage, but it’s also at a casino on the path between the Aria and Caesar’s. All the casinos look alike on the inside. Well, I’m with you on the $5 bet though. I only daydream about taking advantage of +EV games.

  2. Ted said, on June 15, 2011 at 10:05 am

    Stephen —

    Would you say most of the positive E.V. is derived from folding hands you would have raised, or raising hands you would have folded?

    I am trying out your strategy on live games, but not everybody wants to share hold card info. Sometimes I can only get one or two other players, and can’t utilize the whole strategy (i.e. raising bad hands when no copies seen).

  3. iwantplusev said, on July 8, 2011 at 3:21 am

    im from the LA area but im down to venture out there to play this game with you if your model is correct and we truly do have +ev over the house. i really would like to give this a shot!

    • stephenhow said, on July 8, 2011 at 7:41 am

      I’m in a leg cast for a 4-6 weeks, so I won’t be going to the casinos for a while. [They’ll start to worry about me at Viejas in a couple of days :)] But if you travel to San Diego, your best bet is Mississippi Stud @ Barona on the weekend. They have a beautiful hotel, and they might even comp you for your action (call and ask). You have a much better edge there, plus you’ll have a full game and all cards are exposed. From Barona, it’s a short trip to the +EV card craps game at Viejas. Those are only +EV games I ever play. WPT3x All-In is pretty slow and boring, and you have to bring your team.

      Also, check out banking Easy Poker @ The Hustler. Even with collection, you’ll probably end up double-digit +EV because of non-optimal player decisions.

      • iwantplusev said, on July 8, 2011 at 2:21 pm

        ahhh thank you so much for your advice! when you get better i would love to meet you someday and thank you for your inspirational posts and dedication to screwing the house lol. i have literally spent endless hours on your site reading through everything since ive discovered this yesterday, huge fun as you can tell. i really want to implement one of these +ev strategies at some game so i think im gonna give it a shot. the +ev card craps look very intriguing and i believe i know a casino in LA that offers it so perfect! gonna give it a shot!

  4. jpk said, on July 8, 2011 at 11:12 am

    do you know of any places in vegas that has this, other than the MGM properties?

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