Discount Gambling

Grinding Outcomes for +EV Mississippi Stud

Posted in +EV, mississippi stud by stephenhow on February 16, 2012

In case you’re thinking about grinding out a profit at +EV Mississippi Stud (all 6 hands seen @ Barona), I’ve plotted an outcome distribution curve to show you what to expect. The following curve shows the cumulative outcome distribution of playing 5000 hands of Mississippi Stud at a fixed Ante, with a 1000 Ante bankroll. At a $5 Ante, this is a bankroll of $5000, and it would take a month of full-time play to see 5000 hands.

You can see the game is slightly in your favour, because of the asymmetrical bias towards bigger wins than losses. There’s a nice long tail of huge wins (although rare). On average, the expected win is (5000)(+1.25%) = 62.5 Antes. (This used a slightly older strategy; it could be improved.) However, there’s still a 6% chance of busting out, and you still have a 50% chance of losing after 5000 hands!

So, your +EV lies in the asymmetry of the curve, and the long tail of big wins. Not to mention that playing 5000 hands of normal (-EV) Mississippi Stud would cost you (5000)(-4.5%) = 225 Antes, and the outcome distribution curve would look much worse (I don’t have Basic Strategy coded up, but imagine the curve shifted higher and to the left.)

The best way to look at the face-up game is that it’s gambling with a tailwind. Anything can happen, but overall, you’ll feel the help of the tailwind, especially over the long run. Before I was barred, I really enjoyed playing the game hour-after-hour, week-after-week, because it all worked out in the end. It was like playing cards for free.

4 Responses

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  1. Konstantin said, on February 16, 2012 at 9:18 pm

    You were barred? That would be an interesting blog post, I’ve never heard of anyone being barred from a carnival game when they weren’t cheating. I have to assume this blog had something to do with it, which would be a shame. I’m sure that the Barona has made a ton of money from this, both from people who haven’t had the practice to understand and implement the strategies under casino conditions, and those they go in with a tiny bankroll and get hit by risk of ruin. They should be paying you for what you are doing, even if they don’t want you playing at their tables.

  2. drawingdonkey said, on February 17, 2012 at 3:38 pm

    Oh crap, you were barred? I was in there a couple of weeks ago and identified you, was going to say hi but didn’t want to disrupt the game or draw attention to either of us.

    Hopefully I can catch up with you some other way.

  3. vgMega said, on March 2, 2012 at 10:52 am

    oh man really? barred? that is lame of them.

  4. Wacky said, on March 6, 2012 at 10:29 am

    I’d like to hear about the barring too!

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