Bust Bonus BJ Side Bet
A reader pointed me out to Galaxy Gaming’s Bust Bonus blackjack side bet that the dealer will bust, which you make after seeing the dealer’s upcard. I figured I’d run the numbers to see if it was any good, or if it was countable. Well, it might be a fun bet on a few upcards, but it’s kind of expensive for the (offsuit) odds they offer.
| Dealer Upcard |
Probability Suited Bust |
Probability Offsuit Bust |
Probability No Bust |
Payout Suited Bust |
Payout Offsuit Bust |
Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace* | 0.002222 | 0.199059 | 0.798719 | 50 | 3 | -0.090437 |
| Deuce | 0.008751 | 0.347909 | 0.643339 | 25 | 1 | -0.076644 |
| Trey | 0.011524 | 0.365435 | 0.623042 | 15 | 1 | -0.084754 |
| Four | 0.014574 | 0.383896 | 0.601530 | 10 | 1 | -0.071892 |
| Five | 0.017883 | 0.401749 | 0.580368 | 5 | 1 | -0.089206 |
| Six | 0.020844 | 0.418415 | 0.560741 | 3 | 1 | -0.079793 |
| Seven | 0.011716 | 0.250219 | 0.738064 | 15 | 2 | -0.061881 |
| Eight 888 |
0.011133 0.000207 |
0.227312 0.005041 |
0.756307 |
10 75 |
2 25 |
-0.048772 |
| Nine | 0.011602 | 0.217640 | 0.770758 | 20 | 2 | -0.103441 |
| Ten/Face* | 0.012263 | 0.217975 | 0.769761 | 20 | 2 | -0.088547 |
*Bust Bonus wagered after dealer peeks for blackjack.
The most countable bet is against a dealer 8 upcard. It has the lowest house edge (4.9%), and has high payouts for the 888o and 888s busts. The EORs are large, and a simple unbalanced count (Eight => -8, Nine, Ten/Face, Ace, Deuce, Trey, Four => +1; bet when running count >= +24) yields an average +7.5% edge/bet on 17.3% of the dealer 8 upcard hands. Of course, a dealer 8 only occurs on 1/13th of the hands, so it’s not a very practical bet. An ideal count (using total shoe composition including suits) yields a theoretical max return of +7.5% edge/bet on 1.6% of the dealt hands.
Sadly, the standard BJ counts (like the unbalanced Knockout count) don’t correlate with the EV of any of these bets, because unlike blackjack, the Ace hurts the Bust Bonus bet. (Ace rich shoe makes it harder to bust.)
Discount Gambling 
Hi steve,
I ran my simulation(6 deck, H17), all results tally except :-
should bet when running count >= +32 instead of +24 ?