Discount Gambling

Bust Bonus BJ Side Bet

Posted in blackjack sidebets by stephenhow on May 14, 2013

BustBonus-BannerA reader pointed me out to Galaxy Gaming’s Bust Bonus blackjack side bet that the dealer will bust, which you make after seeing the dealer’s upcard. I figured I’d run the numbers to see if it was any good, or if it was countable. Well, it might be a fun bet on a few upcards, but it’s kind of expensive for the (offsuit) odds they offer.

Bust Bonus Side Bet (6 Decks)
Dealer
Upcard
Probability
Suited Bust
Probability
Offsuit Bust
Probability
No Bust
Payout
Suited Bust
Payout
Offsuit Bust
Return
Ace* 0.002222 0.199059 0.798719 50 3 -0.090437
Deuce 0.008751 0.347909 0.643339 25 1 -0.076644
Trey 0.011524 0.365435 0.623042 15 1 -0.084754
Four 0.014574 0.383896 0.601530 10 1 -0.071892
Five 0.017883 0.401749 0.580368 5 1 -0.089206
Six 0.020844 0.418415 0.560741 3 1 -0.079793
Seven 0.011716 0.250219 0.738064 15 2 -0.061881
Eight
888
0.011133
0.000207
0.227312
0.005041
0.756307
 
10
75
2
25
-0.048772
Nine 0.011602 0.217640 0.770758 20 2 -0.103441
Ten/Face* 0.012263 0.217975 0.769761 20 2 -0.088547

*Bust Bonus wagered after dealer peeks for blackjack.

The most countable bet is against a dealer 8 upcard. It has the lowest house edge (4.9%), and has high payouts for the 888o and 888s busts. The EORs are large, and a simple unbalanced count (Eight => -8, Nine, Ten/Face, Ace, Deuce, Trey, Four => +1; bet when running count >= +24) yields an average +7.5% edge/bet on 17.3% of the dealer 8 upcard hands. Of course, a dealer 8 only occurs on 1/13th of the hands, so it’s not a very practical bet. An ideal count (using total shoe composition including suits) yields a theoretical max return of +7.5% edge/bet on 1.6% of the dealt hands.

Sadly, the standard BJ counts (like the unbalanced Knockout count) don’t correlate with the EV of any of these bets, because unlike blackjack, the Ace hurts the Bust Bonus bet. (Ace rich shoe makes it harder to bust.)

One Response

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  1. James said, on November 11, 2014 at 5:39 am

    Hi steve,

    I ran my simulation(6 deck, H17), all results tally except :-

    should bet when running count >= +32 instead of +24 ?


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