Discount Gambling

My local Barona Casino offers a $1 progressive blackjack side bet that pays when your 20 loses to a dealer 21. The payout depends on the number of dealer cards, where the payout increases with the number of cards in the dealer’s hand. The progressive pays out when your 20 is beaten by a 7-or-more card dealer 21.

*calculated using basic strategy (includes surrenders and other decisions that are not optimal for the sidebet).

**magic card average frequency assumed at 1-every-26 hands, and average 3 cards/hand

So, the break-even point for the jackpot is about $100,000. I used basic simple strategy and a 6 deck shoe in this analysis.

Effect of Shoe Depth on EV

While looking for a counting edge on this side bet, I ran into a very pronounced effect of shoe depth on the bet EV. I was expecting the random distribution of cards at the end of the shoe to distribute the EVs around 0. Well, I did find a roughly bell-shaped distribution of EVs, but I discovered that the average return decreases sharply with the shoe depth.

What this means is that as you reach the end of the shoe, the average return of the bad beat side bet decreases very quickly. Most bets don’t behave like this. You want the bet to have the same average return at the start of the shoe as at the end of the shoe. Imagine if blackjack started at a 0.5% house edge for the first hand, but for the last hand ended up at a 50% house edge, on average. Most people wouldn’t stand for that (if they knew it was happening). [You’d probably sense such a bias on an “even-money” bet, but not for a bet that hits < 2% of the time.]

I've plotted out some curves to shoe the effect of shoe depth on the bad beat EV. I set the jackpot at $100k, so the EV for a full six-deck shoe is near 0 (magic card not included). Then, I plotted EV vs. number of decks in the shoe, assuming no missing cards (i.e., a neutral shoe). So, in the graph below, 0.5 decks means half a deck.

The above graph shows the big disparity between playing the bonus at a 6-deck shoe game vs. a double-deck pitch game. The graph also reflects the bet’s average as a function of decks remaining in the shoe. Taking an extreme example (1/2 deck remaining in shoe; most houses shuffle before this point), the distribution of actual EVs is sampled in the below graph. Note how it’s shaped mostly below the -41.5% average return of the above graph.

This effect is probably due to the fact that you need a lot of perfect cards to make a 7-or-more card dealer 21. When you run low on cards, there’s probably much fewer ways (percentage-wise) to make the perfect hand. Some players might intuitively suspect this, or at least would not be surprised when they see these results.

So be careful with this bet. It gets a lot worse than you think it might, especially at the end of the shoe.

Another bonus side bet offered on the i-Table at Barona is a version of Bet The Set that pays for various types of pairs made on the player’s first two cards. For an n-deck shoe, the probability of being dealt a pair is 13*C(n*4,2)/C(n*52,2), and the probability of a suited pair is 4*13*C(n,2)/C(n*52,2).

The pit boss told me they increased the suited payout yesterday from 15:1 to 20:1, which would be an improvement of 8%, changing it from a sucker bet to a fun bet. They’re probably trying to promote the new i-Table games, and it’s an easy thing to change the payouts, since they’re not printed on the mat, but instead displayed on the player touch screens. At only a 2.5% house edge, this is very cheap as bonus bets go.

One of the nice features of the Shuffle Master i-Table is that they can change the odds of the bonus side-bets at any time. Yesterday, they increased the payout on the Royal from 50:1 to 75:1. The change showed up on the display, so I calculated the improvement.

For an n-deck shoe, the probability of hitting a Royal (KQs) is (4)(n^2)/C(52*n,2) and the probability of getting dealt suited cards is 4*C(n*13,2)/C(n*52,2).

The change from the 50:1 to the 75:1 payout on the Royal improved the return from -10.2% to -4.1%. So, it went from a sucker bet to a fun $1 bet you can place every hand.

There’s a blackjack bonus sidebet at Fort McDowell Casino near Phoenix, AZ that offers huge payouts for a $.25 bet (you can only bet a quarter).  I remember seeing this strange bet a while back, and was always curious about it.  I called across state lines to find out the details, and got out the paper and pencil to calculate the house edge for a six-deck shoe.

It’s called “Perfect Charlie”, and pays jackpots for 5-card 21’s (2-3-4-5-7), with different payouts for suited and/or ordered hands. The bet also pays off hands that start off as Perfect Charlies, but don’t make it (like 2-3-4, 2-3-4-5, etc.).

I wrote up an OpenOffice spreadsheet to calculate the odds. I wanted to include the spreadsheet source in this post, but WordPress.com won’t let me upload the .ods document 😦 Fortunately, OpenOffice exports spreadsheets to html.

This is a pretty obscure sidebet, which is probably only found at Fort McDowell. Nothing popped up immediately on Google for this, so I’m having a millionth-monkey moment here (i.e., when you realise you’re the millionth-monkey pounding at the keyboard, and all-of-a-sudden Shakespeare is on the screen).

The bet is pretty horrible in terms of house edge, but want do you want for a quarter?  Or actually, ($.25)(1-.6478) = 8.8¢.  You get the chance to win up to $70,000, while the house has an equally small chance of getting rich off this sidebet.