Simulations For PlayCraps™ @ Viejas Casino, CA
Using the improved don’t pass counting system, using a trailing six roll window, as described in the previous post:
| Point | Conditions to lay (max) don’t pass odds |
|---|---|
| 4 | running count over the last 6 rolls <= -2 |
| 5 | seen at most 2 fives or sixes in the last 6 rolls |
| 6 | seen at most 1 six in the last 6 rolls |
| 8 | seen at most 1 ace in the last 6 rolls |
| 9 | seen at most 2 aces or deuces in the last 6 rolls |
| 10 | running count over the last 6 rolls >= 2 |
where the running count is incremented when both die are high (>= 4), and decremented when both die are low (<= 3).
Applying 10x don't pass odds, I simulated the game using my model for the CSM (continuous shuffling machine), and I got the following results:
Macintosh:Debug show$ ./playcraps -a -m14 -n100000000 -r max muck depth: 14, CSM buffer depth: 10, rolls: 1.0e+08 net: +584729, EV: +0.58% per roll Macintosh:Debug show$ ./playcraps -a -m20 -n100000000 -r max muck depth: 20, CSM buffer depth: 10, rolls: 1.0e+08 net: +621717, EV: +0.62% per roll Macintosh:Debug show$ ./playcraps -a -m20 -b6 -n100000000 -r max muck depth: 20, CSM buffer depth: 6, rolls: 1.0e+08 net: +646693, EV: +0.65% per roll, +2.18% per come out
meaning that the dealer shuffles the muck back into the CSM when it’s more than 14 cards deep. The CSM is modeled with a buffer depth of 10, meaning that the earliest a card can come back out of the shoe is 10 rolls after any shuffle.
The results show that you’ll win +0.58% of your don’t pass bet, on average, per roll. So, for a $5 don’t pass bet, you’ll make $.029/roll, when laying 10x don’t pass odds according to the above table. Note the results improve a little if the dealer allows the muck to collect a little longer (+0.62%/roll for a 20 max card muck).
Note how the count scheme is insensitive to the buffer depth modeled in the CSM. When I decreased it to 6 rolls (12 cards), the return actually improved a little. In the last simulation, I also calculated the return per come out, which came out to +2.18% of the don’t pass bet. Again, that’s only about $0.10 per $5 don’t pass bet.
It’s not a lot of money. Even at a fast 500 roll/hr, you’re only making $14.50/hr. The bankroll requirements for this strategy are large, because you’re laying $100 to win $50 against the 4/10. It’s probably not an option to try and grind this game out. However, if you like playing don’t pass craps, then at least you’re getting the psychological benefit of a $14.50/hr tailwind 🙂
Note that just playing blind 10x don’t pass odds gives you the same ~2% EV. Employing a count scheme is just reducing your 10x odds variance a little from ~35 to ~32 (its still huge). I enjoy varying my odds with every roll. It only takes a small amount of effort, and it makes me feel like I’m in control.
Discount Gambling 
This is one of the twins that you met at pauma casino that one night..
been using ur strategy guide that u gave me and it has been working really well for me. i have been going up to pauma a lot and using it. the guide is like gold.just wanted to say thanks
Thanks Leon, that’s great to hear! It was really fun playing that night. Its good to play with people with positive attitudes and energy. BTW, I think that Viejas is 18+, if you guys want to learn craps 🙂 I had a good craps session tonight, and won about the same amount as the last time we played UTH.
Using the improved don’t pass counting system, using a trailing six roll window, as described in the previous post:
Point Conditions to lay (max) don’t pass odds
4 running count over the last 6 rolls = 2
I understand this but what values are you giving to each card to acheive a running count. I understand that the count is only completed over the last (6) rolls or deals but is there a specific + or – assigned to an individual card??
The weighted count values are per roll (2 card combinations), as detailed in the main cards craps page. There’s also a practice game on that page that shows how the whole system works.