Discount Gambling

Mississippi Stud @ Barona Casino, CA

Posted in +EV, mississippi stud by stephenhow on August 16, 2009

My nearby Barona Casino has been spreading the ShuffleMaster game Mississippi Stud face up for some time now. I finally looked at the game, as it’s played there. Here’s a strategy yielding a 1.5% player edge for a full game (6 seated players). Do not use this strategy unless playing at a full table. Otherwise, play basic strategy (4.91% house edge).

“high outs” means the number of cards in the deck that will give you a high pair (Js thru As)
“mid outs” are the number of cards in the deck that will give you a mid pair (6s thru Ts)
“low outs” are the number of cards in the deck that will give you a low pair (2s thru 5s)

2nd Street:

  • 3x raise a high or mid pair
  • 3x raise with 6 high outs, or with 5 high outs and suited
  • 3x raise a small pair with both trips outs still in the deck
  • 1x call with 3 or more high outs
  • 1x call with 2 high outs if suited, OR at least 2 mid outs, OR at all 3 low outs
  • 1x call with 1 high out if suited AND at least 2 mid outs
  • 1x call with at least 5 mid outs, OR suited and 4 mid outs
  • 1x call with all 3 mid outs and all 3 low outs
  • else fold

3rd Street:

  • 3x raise any made hand
  • 3x raise a low pair if no outs seen (no cards of your hand are out)
  • 3x raise if suited and 8 or more high outs
  • 3x raise if suited and 7 or more high outs AND 7 suit outs
  • 3x raise if suited and 6 or more high outs AND 8 suit outs
  • 1x call if suited
  • 1x call if low pair and 2 trip outs
  • 1x call if low pair and 1 trip out and at least 2 other pair outs
  • 1x call if no-gap straight draw > 456
  • 1x call if 1-gap straight draw and at least 5 mid outs
  • 1x call if 2-gap straight draw and at least 6 mid outs
  • 1x call if at least 4 high outs
  • 1x call if 3 high outs AND (at least 2 mid outs, OR 1 mid out and all 3 low outs, OR all 6 low outs, OR wheel draw and 3 low outs)
  • 1x call if 2 high outs AND (at least 4 mid outs, OR all 3 mid outs and 2 low outs)
  • 1x call if 1 high out AND 5 mid outs
  • 1x call if 7 mid outs, OR all 6 mid outs and all 3 low outs
  • else fold

4th Street:

  • 3x raise any made hand
  • 3x raise any flush draw
  • 3x raise 8 straight outs
  • 3x raise 7 straight outs AND (at least 3 high outs, or at least 4 mid outs)
  • 3x raise 6 straight outs AND (at least 4 high outs, or at least 9 mid outs)
  • 3x raise 5 straight outs AND (at least 6 high outs, or at least 12 mid outs)
  • 3x raise 4 straight outs AND at least 8 high outs
  • 3x raise 3 straight outs AND at least 10 high outs
  • 1x call all other straight draws
  • 1x call any low pair
  • 1x call 5 or more high outs
  • 1x call 4 high outs AND at least 2 mid outs
  • 1x call 3 high outs AND at least 4 mid outs
  • 1x call 2 high outs AND at least 6 mid outs
  • 1x call 1 high outs AND at least 9 mid outs
  • 1x call with all 12 mid outs, or at least 6 mid outs and a previous 3x raise
  • else fold

11 Responses

Subscribe to comments with RSS.

  1. Tryan said, on September 22, 2009 at 8:50 am

    Steven, I love this web site. I play Sp 21 , BJ and i am working on MS Stud. My question for you is if you are playing DD BJ one on one against the dealer and the count goes really high how many hands should you spread to 1,2,3 to max your return?
    If i had to give a more specifisc example I would say four of each 2,3,4,5,6 are gone 3 of each 7,8,9 are gone 7 Jacks are gone and 3 Aces. so 39 cards are played so 65 cards are left and we will play down to 27 cards finish that hand and then shuffle. Thanks Terry

  2. stephenhow said, on September 24, 2009 at 3:18 pm

    Terrance, that’s an interesting question. I don’t know the answer, but I’m tempted to look into it later. I’m not much of a BJ player, but I used my software to check the sensitivities of removing a single 5 from a DD game. I was really surprised to see that it improved the EV by about (my memory could be wrong) +.35%. The numbers were really impressive, and that brings up the question of other effects, as you propose. But, I won’t get to it any time soon, since I’m working on Ultimate Texas Hold’em now (basic strategy and collusion analysis). Also, I need to make a strategy card for 6-player, face-up Mississippi Stud. The game plays really well, but there’s only a full table on weekend nights at Barona. BTW, everyone knows there’s an advantage to playing face up, and so the game sometimes suffers because it can’t attain critical mass (no one will play it until there’s a full game, so it never gets started …).

  3. Tryan said, on September 24, 2009 at 5:42 pm

    Thanks for getting back to me. I get different answers for my question about how many hands to play. Some say play one but when there are 6 or less cards left play as many as you can. Others say if there are a lot of Aces left in the deck spead to 3 hands to give you a better chance to catch an Ace.
    MS Stud at Barona: How many hands can you play? Can 2 people play three hands and see all the cards? I would like to meet you out there in early October. I can bank a couple of hands. Thanks

  4. stephenhow said, on September 25, 2009 at 12:16 am

    It’s really silly how they deal Miss Stud at Barona. First, they deal the cards down, then you turn them up, then you turn them down when you “tuck” your cards under your final bet, then they turn up the cards to read them again. And, you can only play one hand in the light. If you play more than one hand, you have to play it blind. WTF?! Makes no sense. When I play, I bring at least one friend, and last time, we were three. That way, we only need a few other players to make a game. Sure, let’s play together next time. It’ll be fun.

  5. Vytas said, on May 21, 2011 at 7:12 am

    Stephen,
    I’m not a computor guy, but since your posting the +EV Barona strategy, I was wondering if it’s feasable for you to modify your program to have an option to expose either 3rd, 4th or 5th street info (or combination of) during the deal. California is kind of a hike for me, but having this info at other venues appears to be very valuable.
    Thanks.
    V.

    • stephenhow said, on May 21, 2011 at 10:01 am

      I think you’re asking, “what info do I need on each street to have an edge?” In other words, is there an easy way to collude when the cards are dealt face down? Good question, I put my answer in a separate post.

  6. Vytas said, on May 27, 2011 at 1:23 pm

    Stephan,
    If possible, could you please PM me at my e-mail address

    • stephenhow said, on May 27, 2011 at 2:26 pm

      Ok, check your email.

  7. Jim said, on February 11, 2012 at 4:33 am

    When I look at the MS stud strategy, I see no adjustment for folded hands. If, for example, three players fold after getting 2 cards, you will see fewer cards and the EV calculations will change. There must surely be cases where the decision values change. However, the strategy seems to ONLY address the number of outs left in the deck with no consideration of the number of unseen cards.

    How has this been handled? Please feel free to send private email
    Thanks, Jim

  8. Jim said, on February 11, 2012 at 4:47 am

    Hmmm…. Never mind. Now I see the last 3 are dealt as community cards.
    Much easier for us, though having the extra information would obviously be
    more lucrative.

    • stephenhow said, on February 11, 2012 at 8:40 am

      Yes, you should play with a few friends, and flash your holecards to each other. I’ve worked out a strategy for 4 players, if you can’t get to Barona.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 90 other followers

%d bloggers like this: