Mississippi Stud (+EV @ Barona)
At Barona Casino near San Diego, CA, they deal ShuffleMaster’s Mississippi Stud face up, where you can see the other player’s hands. This info helps the players odds considerably, and for a full table, the player actually has a small +1.5% edge over the house. While this is much better than the normal 4.91% house edge, there’s not always a full game going, the hand rate is slow (max 40/hr), and the variance is high. So don’t expect to be able to grind out a profit at this game, unless you have a large bankroll, and a bunch of friends to fill in the empty seats.
When I play, I use a Simplified +EV Collusion Strategy that still yields +0.5% against the house.
For updates, check all my posts on on +EV Mississippi Stud.
One cool aspect of the game is that standing players can bet behind seated players, and they can make independent decisions of the seated player. This is key, since I only play at a full table (my strategy requires 6 players). This helps keep the critical mass of the game going. If a seated player leaves, another one is right there to take his place, and keep the cards and info flowing.
The improved strategy based on knowledge of all dealt hands is listed in my post Mississippi Stud @ Barona Casino, CA.
Mississippi Stud strategy table when all 6 hands seen.
You can practice the game (optionally with collusion) by clicking on the screenshot below:
You don’t need to actually see all the player hands to know exactly how many outs you have. Most places will allow you to discretely discuss your “outs”, so you should be able to make the game +EV for yourself.
The older Java game:
Mississippi Stud Game Screenshot
I noticed that this strategy card doesn’t have the 3rd street call for 3 high outs, wheel draw, and three low outs, nor does your Java game. Is this still part of your strategy? Thanks.
Thanks for the heads up. I fixed the A w/ wheel cards draw on 3rd street in the game and the strategy table. I also fixed a few other points, and the game now simulates at +1.4%.
Stephen, Love the site. I am planning a trip to Barona this week with 5 or 6 people and playing Miss Stud.
My question is how much EV do we lose by folding 3 mid outs and 3 low outs hand? Also what is the effect of only calling a small pair with both trip outs still in the deck/
Thanks Stephen
Terry, on 3rd St (the 1st bet), you lose 5% of the Ante if you fold 3 mid and 3 low outs. (See my EV chart for common decisions.) Also, the hand is worth more if there are 2 or less high cards showing, or if your 3+3 hand has plenty of straight outs. Good luck on your trip! Tell us how it goes.
Betting a small pair with all your trip outs remaining on 3rd St is worth 60% of the Ante more than just 1x calling.
On 4th St, you gain a little by 3x betting a small pair with *all* your outs remaining (i.e., all your trip outs, all your 2 pair outs). But, as I remember, it’s a very small edge, so 1x betting here is ok.
Thanks Stephen! We are trying to go as a group of 6 and pooling our money. I believe this will help with varience. I will let you know how it goes. Thanks again
Don’t forget, Caribbean Stud plays well with a team of 7. I updated my analysis, and found the edge is actually about 1.1% for a full table.
I think this is the best game ever, you just have to know when to fold and when to hold. It’s really hard to get a flush and straight in the real game. But 3 of a kind and pairs are okay if you got money to pay with. I like the pay odds. I either win big or lose a lot. I play in MS.
Would love to see basic strategy for seeing two other hands, which is more common down here in MS. If I hold J3o and I see another Jack do I play? Or I hold 68o and so does my neighbor, what then?
Big tip: Give yourself a goal. Whether its winning $200 or doubling your money, once you hit your goal GET UP AND GO!!! I have had several winning sessions that ended up costing me some cash because I did not follow this rule. It gets too easy to pay to see the next card 6 hands in a row. But man I love this game.
Stephen, when is the next time you’ll be up there?
I agree with you … hit and run with this game. However, I don’t like the game that much. I tell my friends it’s the “least fun +EV game I know”. It’s pretty aggravating when you don’t hit anything. I might look into perfecting some aspects of the advanced (collusion) strategy. Is the game full on week nights?
I can see why you think it’s boring lol. Sometimes it gets full at nights. I may head up there tomorrow and see what its like. The best bet though is weekends. I may hit up Viejas this next weekend though.
Heading up to Barona now, maybe I’ll see someone upt there. GL all
Last night at Harrah’s I saw so many players doing what I call “Chase the Ace”
They will have an ace with a non-playing card 5 or below and chase it to the end yet if they have a jack and a low card they fold.
Ace is no better than a jack as far as getting paid for a pair
Does Harrah’s allow face-up action as well?
Went to Harrah’s Rincon Sunday. Lost about $300 before I hit. Did well.
A word to the wise. KNOW the rules.
Wife said let me do it I know how. She had a pair of sixes . $5 ante so she bet $5 for first card instead of three times (I was on oppoisite end of table) a six comes up and she bet $5 Bottom line is quads came up and she lost out on $800 because of wrong betting.
BTW She hit quads 3 times in 2 hours. Did better on the other 2.
Heading to Barona tonight. Hopefully I’ll hit a Royal! I’ll be happy with a full house though lmao. Anyways, good luck to all this weekend.
Played at HARRAHS Thu.
started at $5 ante and got up to $25 playing with winning $$.
I have to say it’s quite a rush playing with green.
You learn not to chase REAL fast.
ARE THERE ANY ON LINE CASINOS THAT OFFER MISSISSIPPI STUD?
Played for the 1st time the other day in ms. Hit 4 9′s. $4000. I’m hooked !!
Nice. I played all day yesterday, and didn’t hit anything big. I lost $200
In Ultimate, if the dealer pays your play bet when they don`t qualify, even if they have a higher hand,how much would this change the house advantage?
It’s be huge, but it probably won’t last. Is this a long-term opportunity?
It is dealer dependant.So far 2 dealers who do this.
Any strategy changes you could suggest for this.
Thank you
Played MS at Harrah’s yesterday.
Got down to $800 in the hole after a few sessions and finally got it all back in about 45 min into my last one..
I see a lot of players leave after just a few bets.
It is a game of patience and deep pockets. lol
You will find mostly old farts like myself at the table
LONG sessions but usually do well. The wife played one 8 hour session and only won $200. Unusual not to hit a big hand in that time frame.
Same faces at the table every time I go there. Geriatric crowd. lol
Stephen, Can you tell me how to figured out that there is a 1.5 % advantage? Thanks Terry
I used “monte-carlo” analysis (i.e., random simulation of hands satisfying a proposed hypothesis) to develop individual decision points of the collusion strategy. I constructed a complete strategy (all hand classifications and decisions), coded it up, and ran it for billions of hands. First, I verified the baseline simulation that basic strategy (no collusion) returned the expected -4.91% EV. Then, I substituted in the full collusion strategy, and observed the improved return. This type of simulation is the least susceptible to error, because there’s no way to “cheat”, other than through collusion information. In other words, the baseline -4.91% simulation guarantees the +EV collusion strategy must be the result of the strategy, not any bug in the programming.
just curious, the practice game pays 5:1 on straights. but the wizard of odds lists the payout as 4:1. what payout did you use for your analysis? thanks!
The paytable pays 5-to-1 for a straight at Barona. It’s the first table I ever saw, so I thought it was standard. But as usual, Barona has the best paytables, and everyone else pays 4-to-1 for the straight. I used 5-to-1 for the analysis, so it’ll probably change the 3x decision points for a straight draw. Eventually, I’ll get around to updating the analysis for the more common paytable.
The house edge for a game with 4 to 1 on the straight is 4.91%. So barona’s game of 5 to 1 on the straight is only 3.97% house edge. This could change your +EV numbers a bit.
Ahhh … I’ll have to correct the baseline EV numbers for the 5:1 straight paytable. But I already have the 5:1 paytable in my collusion analysis, so my +EV numbers stand as they are.
Steve
Stephen,
Now that you can play multiple hands. Do you think it would be better for a person to Bet $30 on one hand of MS Stud at a full table or Bet $5 on all 6 hands? What is the effect on variance and EV? Thanks Bro
I’ve been wanting to check the effects of betting all 6 hands on EV and variance as you point out. I’ll get around to it soon!
Had a great day at a casino. Don’t want to get anyone in trouble so name withheld.
Had one dealer kept flashing community cards. A few times he actually dealt all three face up. He had been dealing another carnival game prior to this.
played all day on their money as I hit good on my first buy in. Had one boat with $100 down. Ended up $2300 ahead.
Wish I was closer to Barona
Been to Harrah’s 3 times so far this year. Got my win/loss statement and it is way off.
They are not keeping a count in the pit when you buy in. I suggest when you go to MS you buy in at $300 increments. They usually check that. $100 not so much.
Had a couple good hands so far this year,
See ya there